Real Baseball - Where Do the Coleroys Rank Among the Best Starting Threesomes Ever?

Warning This Post May Contain Excessive Numbers!!

A couple of weeks ago our friend, Dr. Philadelphia send us the following email:

“Has there EVER been a starting 3 playing as well as they are right now (in the
history of baseball--or at least last 40 yrs--too hard to compare older than
that). Can you think of any? Maybe Glavine/Maddox/Avery? Give me your arguments.
Their records are a little deceiving because of inconsistent run support this
year, but the ERA's speak for themselves (especially if you count Oswalt only
post-trade). ”

Dr. Philadelphia who, as you likely gather from his name, is not one to underrate anything related to Philly sports. In fact, we had an ongoing argument about the Phillies playoff chances which started when he boasted that they were 100% guaranteed to make the playoffs while they sat 3 1/2 games behind the Braves in late August. Sure, they ultimately made the playoffs but that doesn't validate unsupported optimism. The question is particularly interesting since the Yankees managed to win the World Series with only 3 starters - C.C. Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte – meaning that, come playoff time, your 4th and 5th starters probably don't matter that much.

So, in the wake of Halladay’s historic no-hitter last night, we can’t think of a better time to tackle this question. As a basis, we started with a list of the greatest rotations ever compiled by ESPN Page 2 and added on from there. It's kinda funny when you realize the list was compiled before the 2005 season to see where the new Yankee rotation - Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Mike Mussina & Kevin Brown – might rate historically. (Hate to spoil it for you but the answer turned out to be nowhere.)

To answer the question somewhat objectively we’re going to attempt to utilize two key stats which should be somewhat comparable across generations – Adjusted EAR (ERA+) and Wins Above Replacement for Pitchers (WAR) to try to make sense of the numbers across the different eras. ERA+ represents the pitchers ERA adjusted to take ballpark factors into account as it relates to the league average of 100, the higher the number the better. WAR represents roughly the number of wins a player added to his team in a given year when compared to the average replacement level player. It’s not a perfect method but since we’re far from stat proficient, it works for us. We’ll also add our own subjective take on each match-up.
Finally, we limited the inquiry to the last 40 years because we felt like that would give us an accurate point of comparison when expansion, etc. is taken into account. Let’s start with the 2010 Phillies, the subject of our inquiry.

2010 Philadelphia Phillies

The current World Series favorites, the Philadelphia Phillies boast 3 of the top starters in the National League. First and foremost you have Roy Halladay, the man widely considered the most consistent, if not the absolute best, pitcher in baseball over the last several years. After toiling in semi-anonymity in Toronto for more than a decade, Halladay came to Philly seeking his first playoff appearance. In 2010, he put together a stellar campaign winning more than 20 games for the 3rd time and seems poised to collect his second Cy Young Award. In his first postseason start, he pitched a damn no-hitter. Unbelievable accomplishment. Check out the numbers:

Roy Halladay: 21-10, 2.44, 219 Ks, 7.9 K/9, ERA+ 166, WAR 6.9
Top 10 in every meaningful category including #1 in wins, #3 in ERA, #2 in K’s and #8 in K/9. Second in both ERA+ and WAR. Obviously, having Halladay as your #1 is going to make any staff formidable, but when you add in these two guys, it gets kind of silly.

Roy Oswalt: 13-13, 2.76, 192 Ks, 7.9 K/9, ERA+ 232 (since coming to Philly), WAR 5.1
Since joining the Phillies, Little Roy has been nothing short of spectacular going 7-1 with a 1.65 ERA in 12 starts. To give Roy the benefit of the doubt we’ve given him his Philly-only ERA+ and his total WAR.

Cole Hamels: 12-11, 3.09, 209 Ks, 9.1 K/9, ERA+ 131, WAR 4.6
Your third starter in this trio is the 2008 World Series MVP. After a down 2009 season, Hamels answered all doubts with a stellar season.

Rotation Top 10’s: (all 3 unless otherwise indicated): WAR, ERA (2 in Top 5), Ks, ERA+ (2)

Combined: ERA+ is gaudy 176 (75% better than the league average) and they’ve added 16.4 wins to their team total. Without these guys, they’d be the Mets. So you have 3 pitchers who sit in the Top 10 in almost all the major categories, firing on all cylinders going into the postseason. That's certainly enough to make them the favorites this year but how do they stack up overall?

1990’s Atlanta Braves

You can’t have this conversation without talking about the Braves of the 90’s. For the purposes of this article we picked 2 rotations – 1993 & 1998. 1996 & 1995 were narrowly omitted and Maddux was ridiculous in ’95 but the staff was better balanced in these years.

1993 – Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Steve Avery

The Numbers

Maddux: Cy Young, 20-10, 2.36, 197 Ks (3rd), 6.6 K/9. ERA+ 172 (1st) & WAR 6.2

Glavine: 3rd in Cy Young, 22-6, 3.20, 120 Ks, 4.9 K/9. ERA+ 127 (8th) & WAR 3.8

Avery: 18-6, 2.94, 125 Ks, 5.0 K/9. ERA+ 138 & WAR 2.8

John Smoltz was also on the staff but Avery’s numbers were slightly better in all categories, save for Ks.

Top 10: WAR (2), ERA, Wins, ERA+

Combined: ERA+ 145, WAR 12.8

Edge: The numbers say the Phils have the edge here and we’re inclined to agree. Halladay and Maddux is a wash, at least, though Halladay’s strikeout potential is intriguing to us and, as great as Glavine was over his career, Oswalt might just be throwing better right now. Hamels gets the edge over the vintage Avery (if that really exists).

1998 – Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz.

The Numbers

Maddux: 18-9, 2.22, 204 Ks, 7.3 K/9, ERA+ 187, WAR 6.1

Glavine: 20-6, 157 Ks, 6.2 K/9, ERA+ 168, WAR 5.6

Smoltz: 17-3, 173 Ks, 9.3 K/9, ERA+ 144, WAR 3.2

Top 10: Cy Young (Glavine won, Maddux and Smoltz tied for 4th), ERA (1st, 3rd & 6th), WAR (2), Wins, K/9 (2), ERA+

Combined: ERA+ 166, WAR 14.9. The raw numbers are better for 1995 (ERA+ 178, WAR 16.9) than 1998 but Glavine was a more solid #2 that year so we gave 1998 the edge.

Edge: It’s hard to argue with ESPN Page 2’s choice as Best Rotation Ever sporting 3 Cy Young Winners, including Glavine winning this season, and 3 potential HOF inductees. The numbers certainly don’t hurt their case though the Phils have a slight edge in ERA+ and WAR. Still, we have to go with the Braves on this one because Smoltz is one of the dominant big game pitchers of all time and his strike-out ability helps to balance out Maddux and Glavine’s control approach (though they each posted good K/9 rates in 1998) and because Glavine was significantly better in 1998 than 1993 so he is at least as good as Oswalt. It’s close but the edge goes to the Braves.

1985 New York Mets

The 1986 rotation was deeper but Doc Gooden was as dominant in ’85. He was so good it almost doesn’t matter what the other guys did.

The Numbers

Doc Gooden: Unanimous Cy Young, 24-4, 1.53 ERA, 268 Ks, 8.7 K/9, ERA+ 229, WAR 11.7

Ron Darling: 16-6, 2.90, 167 Ks, 6.1 K/9, ERA+ 120, WAR 4.4

Sid Fernandez: 9-9, 2.80, 180 Ks, 9.5 K/9, ERA+ 125, WAR 3.7

Top 10: WAR (2), ERA, K/9 (2), Ks, ERA+ (2). Gooden was 1st or 2nd in every major category.

Combined: ERA+ 158, WAR 19.8

Edge: Numbers wise, the Mets get the edge in WAR due to Gooden’s absurd season (he lead the league in innings and had 15 CG, in his second season – no need to wonder where pitch and innings counts come from anymore) and his 12 wins added. Sadly, we still go with the Phils. Though Doc Gooden is one of the only pitchers who can top Doc Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels have a slight edge over Darling and El Sid. Still, this staff is highly underrated.

2002 Boston Red Sox

The 2002 Sox make the list on the strength of the incomparable Pedro Martinez (99-00 Pedro got absolutely no help despite his off-the-charts numbers) and career years from Derek Lowe (starting after closing the prior year) and Tim Wakefield (a weird 15 starts of dominance).

The Numbers

Pedro Martinez: 20-4, 2.26, 239 Ks, 10.9 K/9, ERA+ 202, WAR 5.7

Derek Lowe: 21-8, 2.58, 127 Ks, 5.2 K/9, ERA+ 177, WAR 6.4

Tim Wakefield: 11-5, 2.81, 134 Ks, 7.4 K/9, ERA+ 162, WAR 3.7

Top 10: Cy Young (2nd and 3rd for Pedro and Lowe), WAR (2), ERA (1st, 2nd & 5th), K/9 (2), ERA+ (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Combined: ERA+ 180, WAR 16.8

Edge: The numbers lean towards the Sox which is quite surprising. But since we view Lowe and Wakefield and fluky, the Phils get the edge in this one as well. We’d rather have Little Roy and Lady Hamels.

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks

It’s hard to put together a list of pitchers without including the names Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. In 2001, they double-handedly carried the upstart Diamondbacks to a World Series title, pitching in seemingly every single game. The question is, since we’re dealing with pitching trios, who was their third guy. The answer, sadly, is someone named Miguel Batista – he made 18 starts and was far more effective than the other guys. Looking at the numbers, Johnson and Schilling practically equal many of the better threesomes on their own and the inclusion of Batista serves simply to bring down their ERA+ and give any other team a huge advantage in a hypothetical match-up. Check out the numbers:

The Numbers

Johnson: 21-6, 2.49, 372 Ks, 13.4 K/9, ERA+ 188, WAR 8.4

Schilling: 22-6, 2.98, 293 Ks, 10.3 K/9, ERA+ 157, WAR 7.3

Batista: 11-8, 3.36, 90 Ks, 5.8 K/9, ERA+ 139, WAR 2.8

Top 10: Cy Young (Johnson won, Schilling 2nd), WAR (1st & 2nd), ERA (1st and 2nd), Wins (1st and 3rd), K/9 (1st and 3rd), IP (1st and 2nd), Ks (1st and 2nd), ERA+ (1st and 2nd)

Combined ERA+ 161, WAR 18.5

Edge: The Phils win the ERA+ while Johnson and Schilling dominate the WAR. Who needs 3 pitchers when you have the two best in the business? If we had to pick one, we’d go with the D’Backs and just pitch The Unit and Big Shill every other day.

The New York Yankee Dynasty

We’d be remiss if we didn’t include any of the recent Yankee rotations. Many may have forgotten but, despite their recent and continued spending sprees on position players, the 90’s Yankee dynasty was built on exceptional pitching. Two in particular stand out, neither of which was a World Series Championship rotation.

1997 – Pettitte, Wells, Cone

The Numbers

Andy Pettitte: 18-7, 2.88, 166 Ks, 6.2 K/9, ERA+ 156, WAR 7.6

David Wells: 16-10, 4.21, 156 Ks, 6.4 K/9, ERA+ 107, WAR 4.1

David Cone: 12-6, 2.82, 222 Ks, 10.2 K/9, ERA+ 157, WAR 6.7

Top 10: WAR (2), Era (2), Wins (2), Ks (2), ERA+ (2)

Combined: ERA+ 140, WAR 18.4

Edge: Great WAR’s from Pettitte and Cone give the Yanks the edge but the Yanks (unfairly) lose some points for not winning the series with these guys. While Cone is one of our all-time favorite guys and a big game stud, the Yanks can’t match Halladay and the other match-ups are too close to call. Phils by a hair.

2001 – Mussina, Clements, Pettitte

Another near miss season for the Yanks with excellent regular season pitching. If only Rivera could have made a better throw to second. That error will always haunt them.

The Numbers

Mike Mussina: 17-11, 3.15, 214 Ks, 8.4 K/9, ERA+ 143, WAR 6.5

Roger Clemens: 20-3, 3.51, 213 Ks, 8.7 K/9, ERA+ 128, WAR 5.4 (how many of the 20 wins does Brian McNamee get credit for? 11?)

Andy Pettitte: 15-10, 3.99, 164 Ks, 7.4 K/9, ERA+ 112, WAR 3.3

Top 10: Cy Young (Clemens won, Mussina 5th), WAR (1st & 3rd), ERA (2), Wins (2), K/9, Ks, ERA+ (2)

Combined: ERA+ 128, WAR 15.2

Edge: Phils win the numbers game. We think the rest of the match-ups are dead even so in our mind this is a tie.

2002 Oakland A’s

Everything seemed so promising in 2002 when the A’s were riding high and showing small market clubs that winning was attainable. Then they traded their big 3 pitchers and things were never the same. Moneyball ain’t got nothing on Zito, Mulder & Hudson. In 2002, Zito was at the height of his game, winning the Cy Young while Mulder and Hudson were almost equally as effective. The 2002 rotation edged the 2003 version on the strength of Zito’s strikeout rate which plummeted to 5.7 K/9 and never quite seemed to get back up.

The Numbers

Mark Mulder: 19-7, 3.47, 159 Ks, 6.9 K/9, ERA+ 125, WAR 4.3

Barry Zito: 23-5 (led league), 2.75, 182 Ks, 7.1 K/9, ERA+ 158, WAR 6.5

Tim Hudson: 15-9, 2.98, 152 Ks, 5.7 K/9, ERA+ 145, WAR 5.7

Top 10: Cy Young (Zito won); WAR (2nd & 3rd), ERA, Wins (2), K/9 (2), Ks, ERA+ (2)
Combined: ERA+ 143, WAR 16.5

Edge: The numbers are split, though the Phils WAR is close enough. The trajectory of their careers has really sullied the once pristine reputation of the A’s trio so it’s hard for us to give them the edge and Mulder, despite the good year, is the weak link while Halladay is vastly superior to everything the A’s have to offer (even Cy Young Zito).

2005 Houston Astros

This is our favorite and perhaps the most interesting case. If you simply look at the numbers of they are positively staggering and even better than the Coleroys. The 3 of them all finished in the top 5 for the Cy Young, 1,2 & 7 in ERA and Top 6 in ERA+ and WAR. The catch, of course, is the steroid question. Clemens was 42 at the time and his numbers only seem plausible with the help of some sort of anabolic aid. Still, check this out:

The Numbers

Clemens: 13-8, 1.87, 185 Ks, 7.9 K/9, ERA+ 226, WAR 7.2

Oswalt: 20-12, 2.94, 184 Ks, 6.9 K/9, ERA+ 177, WAR 5.3

Pettitte: 17-9, 2.39, 171 Ks, 6.9 K/9, ERA+ 144, WAR 5.8

Top 10: Cy Young (3 in Top 5), ERA (1st, 2nd & 7th), ERA+ (1st, 2nd & 6th), WAR (1st, 3rd & 5th), Wins (2),

Combined: ERA+ 182, WAR 18.3

Edge: The Astros numbers are just phenomenal as good as anyone particularly in ERA+. Their WAR likely suffers a bit from a lesser innings total and Clemens deceiving win total (he got comical run support that year if we remember correctly). If we take steroids out of the equation, for argument’s sake, this one goes to the Astros and though we don’t like Clemens as a big game pitcher, he was on point in 2005 and the team did make the World Series. Astros by a performance enhanced nose.

Bottom Line

The Coleroys certainly rank near the top of the list of modern era ace trios but we wouldn’t go as far as to say they’re the best. We’re sure you disagree. That’s the whole point isn’t it?