Thursday, June 23, 2011

Real Hoops - 2011 NBA Mock Draft


Welcome to the 2011 NBA Draft.  This year's theme is “Weakness.”  At the top, it’s a weak draft with weak teams picking players with glaring weaknesses.  Even the two best players have major questions – Irving played all of 11 games at Duke and Williams, for all his production, still kind of looks like an undersized power forward.  How does that NOT get you excited?  Well it should because, in drafts like this, ones with more potential than sure things, one or two guys not picked in the Top 2 will turn out to be stars so with everyone playing a three hour game of “Guess Who”, the chances that your team will be the one who finds the guy are even better than usual.  It’s that potential that should get you excited.

So, without further ado, here’s our breakdown of how things will probably go (based primarily on the work of the great Chad Ford of ESPN.  Nobody reports this thing better than he does) (“Probably”) as well as what would happen in our fantasy world (“WWTPPD”).

(As always, “Reminds us of” is meant to give you a mental picture of how a guy plays and his best case NBA comparison)

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Clippers)

Weakness:  Being unable to quit LeBron James

Probably:  Kyrie Irving, 6-4, 191, PG, Duke

WWTPPD:  Derrick Williams, 6-9, 250, PF/SF, Arizona

During the LeBron era, the Cavs gave a clinic on how not to build a team, surrounding their young star with fading veterans only to watch him walk away and be left without a backup plan.  (The lesson:  Never tie the fortunes of your multi-million dollar enterprise to a 25-year old megalomaniac.  Words to live by.)  Fortunately, for the price of Baron Davis’ shitty attitude and worse contract, the Cavs rallied and secured two Top 5 picks and a chance to start over.  Unfortunately, it’s in this draft (had they picked in those spots last year they’d have gotten John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins/Greg Monroe).

Most people, including us, think that Williams and Irving are neck and neck.  Granted Irving might get a slight edge because his position in the league is more defined but with the T’Wolves insisting they’ll take Irving (despite everyone knowing they can’t) the Cavs should call their bluff and take Williams.  If they do, it’s exceedingly likely that they’ll find Brandon Knight, a close second to Kyrie in the PG rankings, waiting for them at #4.  It would be the risky move but also the one that could remake the franchise.

For as much as we’ve called him an “undersized power forward”, Williams still looks like a great prospect.  His combine measurements (6-9 with a standing reach of 9 feet) put him on par with most NBA starting power forwards and quell any concerns about his height.  Add that to his explosive athleticism and shooting prowess (55% from the field and 3) and you’re looking at a match-up nightmare.  You only had to watch his performance against Duke in the NCAA to see all that he does well (shoot from deep, crash the boards, compete on every play and explosively attack the rim) but also where he struggles (defensively, creating his own shot).  If he can know his role and shut his mouth about being a SF (NBA success is as much about understanding how you fit as talent) he could end up a star. 

Reminds us of:  Larry Johnson/Unhigh Michael Beasley/More athletic Antawn Jamison/Unlobotomized Al Harrington

2. Minnesota Timberwolves

Weakness:  KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Probably:  Derrick Williams

WWTPPD:  Trade to someone who will pick Kyrie Irving

Minny’s options really epitomize this year’s draft:  (1) pick a player who doesn’t fit; (2) pass on Irving or Williams and lose value; or (3) trade a pick but get back a veteran not quite good enough to help.  If Williams goes first, they have to trade the pick.  Maybe they swap with Utah and move down one spot.  Maybe they call Washington and make a deal for the 6 and something else (even if it’s not JaVale McGee).  Otherwise, they call L.A. and figure out how to pry away Pau Gasol with Irving as the bait.  At some point the Wolves have to quit adding young players and put together a roster of complimentary guys that they can move forward with.     

No matter who ends up with the pick (and for our purposes we assume it’s not Utah), Irving will go second.  Despite playing only 11 games at Duke, he impressed with his ability to score (17.5 ppg), shoot from deep (46% from 3) and make his teammates better (Duke looked like hands-down the best team in college basketball when Irving was healthy).  Even watching him at limited effectiveness in March, you could still see why he can be dynamic.  Since he’s not a freak athlete like Rose or Wall or Westbrook, his success is going to come down to how much Chris Paul there is in him.  If it’s a lot, he’s a franchise player, if it’s a little, he’s Mike Conley.  

Reminds us of:  A poor man’s Chris Paul/Ty Lawson/Mike Conley

3. Utah Jazz (from Nets)

Weakness:  The lack of an honor code

Probably: Brandon Knight, 6-3, 177, PG, Kentucky

WWTPPD: Trade or Enes Kanter, 6-11, 260, PF/C, Turkey

We’re pretty sure when the Jazz envisioned getting a Top 3 pick in exchange for Deron Williams; they thought they’d be getting someone like Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger or Kyrie Irving.  Instead, they’re facing the possibility of filling their massive hole at point guard with the unproven Brandon Knight or taking a guy who’s played two games in the last year.  Not exactly a dream scenario.  With Williams and Irving gone, they’re best move would be to try trade back a few spots to a team that covets Enes Kanter (Washington?), snag a defensive-minded small forward with that pick and, with Devin Harris already on board and Knight, Jimmer and Kemba all possessing similar value, wait until 12 to grab their point guard of the future.  With a few smart moves, their team could feature Mormon Hero Jimmer, the cherubic Gordon Heyward, Kawhi Leonard/Jan Veseley, Derrick Favors (who would have been the #1 pick this year had he stayed in school) and Al Jefferson.  That could be enough to make fans remember, and then want to kind of forget, the Stockton-Malone era. 

If they keep the pick, Kanter should be there guy.  While not an elite athlete, Kanter’s skill level (he can score around the basket, shoot the mid-range jumper and pass), strength and rebounding acumen make him look like the #1 overall pick.  The problem?  After sitting out the entire year at Kentucky, he’s played only 2 games (both all-star games, but one in which he destroyed Jared Sullinger) in the last year.  He could be a workout wonder or he could be an absolute stud.  Either way, he’s going to make somebody look stupid. 

Reminds us of:  A bigger Carlos Boozer with Darko's downside

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

Weakness:  A complete and utter lack of good players

Probably:  Enes Kanter

WWTPPD:  Brandon Knight

With Williams on the fold, the Cavs could snag Knight to play point and have two solid building blocks.  While he’s not as safe a bet as Irving, in his one season at Kentucky, Knight proved that he could score and knock down shots.  The knock is that he also failed to show he could run a team, which is apparently some kind of a prerequisite or something.  Still, his athleticism, ability to shoot and intelligence (he’s a 4.0 student!!) give him a ton of upside. 

If somehow Knight and Irving went 2-3, the Cavs would trade back to Washington (who picks Kanter) so they could pick Jonas Valanciunas.

Reminds us of:  If he learns how to play point, he could be Billups, if he never does, he could be Jason Terry.

5. Toronto Raptors

Weakness:  A failure to realize that Canada is not Europe.

Probably:  Kawhi Leonard, 6-7, 228, SF, San Diego State

WWTPPD:  Kawhi Leonard, 6-7, 228, SF, San Diego State

What can we say about the Raptors?  Seriously, does anyone have any ideas because this is perhaps the least interesting team in the history of the NBA?  Plus, they play in Canada so you know how that is.  Anyway, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo apparently hates North America as he seems preoccupied with building a European-style team up north, complete with, you guessed it, lots of Europeans.  Even with Veseley on the board, Toronto seems poised to actually pick an American (USA!!! USA!!! USA!!!).  If Leonard can get past the stench coming from his non-deodorized teammates, his winning attitude, athleticism and defense should make him a welcome (and unique) addition to the roster.  If he can learn how to shoot, he could be a star, but otherwise he’s the versatile role player every good (or hoping to be good) team needs.  Plus apparently he’s got gigantic hands so he’ll be really good in those Canadian “Biggest Hand Contests.”  (It’s cold up there, give them a break)

Reminds us of:  Slightly less athletic Shawn Marion/Gerald Wallace

6. Washington Wizards 

Weakness:  Owing $18m to a player who may or may not be dead

Probably:  Jan Veseley, 6-11, 240, F, Czech Republic

WWTPPD:  Trade or Jan Veseley, 6-11, 240, F, Czech Republic

The T’Wolves have apparently offered the #2 pick for the #6 and JaVale McGee, who’s athleticism is matched only by his inconsistency.  If that rumor is to be believed, the Wiz have to make that move and get Williams.  They’re far, far away from contending, so getting Wall a potentially elite running buddy has to be the priority. 

Short of that, trading up for Kanter makes a ton of sense as well.  Wall apparently loves him and has been lobbying hard.  If they believe he can be a difference maker, they should be bold and go get him. 

If they keep the pick, however, Veseley makes a ton of sense.  With Agent Nothing gone, the Wiz are officially John Wall’s team.  Unfortunately, he’s charged with leading a bunch of guys who either think they’re playing “Horse” (Blatche and McGee) or dead (Rashard Lewis).  Veseley isn’t your typical soft Euro; he plays hard, dunks on people’s heads Czech-style, runs the court and defends.  His offensive game is still a work in progress and his jumper needs work but his athleticism and aggression should get him some run and make him a nice compliment to Wall. 

Reminds us of:  Andre Kirilenko

7. Sacramento Kings

Weakness: Their credit score

Probably:  Kemba Walker, 6-1, 184, PG, UCONN

WWTPPD:  Kemba Walker, 6-1, 184, PG, UCONN

From their two best players (Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins) to their owners (The Maloofs), the Kings are a team of head cases so at 7, they’ll be looking for leadership and character and likely a point guard who can keep the ball out of Tyreke’s hands long enough to give other guys a chance to touch it.  While ownership is apparently in love with Jimmer and his ability to sell tickets, Walker seems to get the edge on athleticism and a more easily translatable game.  Kemba’s exploits are well chronicled, he lead UCONN to an unexpected title, scoring at will the entire time and earning himself a boatload of amorphous labels like heart, leader and clutch.  While those things make for great stories, the NBA is about production and to be successful, he’ll have to use his quickness and ability to break down defenses to score less and distribute more.  That alone should make him, at least, a solid starting PG.  Additionally, his intangibles translate, he could be the stabilizing influence the team needs to get the most out of the talented but difficult duo of Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins. 

Reminds us of:  Tony Parker/Tim Hardaway

8. Detroit Pistons

Weakness:  Even thinking about letting Isaiah Thomas near the organization

Probably:  Bismack Biyombo, 6-9, 243, PF/C, Congo

WWTPPD:  Jonas Valanciunas, 7-0, 230 lbs, C, Lithuania

It’s not necessarily that Biyombo doesn’t make sense here (a player with his athleticism and defensive prowess at (allegedly) 18 years old won’t last long), but in a draft this weak and with a potential lockout looming, the bigger and more offensively skilled Valanciunas (pronounced “Big V”) is a better value, even if he’s forced to stay in Europe for another season.  He’s a raw 7-footer that rebounds, blocks shots and plays hard and possesses the upside of a guy like Gasol if his offensive game develops (right now it’s mostly put backs and finishes around the rim).  If they pass, it could be proof that the ghost of Darko continues to haunt the Motor City.

Reminds us of:  Tyson Chandler/Anderson Varejeo

9. Charlotte Bobcats

Weakness:  A complete and utter lack of basketball history to provide a context within which the fans can properly hate their team

Probably:  Marcus Morris, 6-9, 235, F, Kansas

WWTPPD:  Alec Burks, 6-6, 193, SG, Colorado

At this point in time, the Bob’s best player sits (figuratively since he’s more apt to be found on a golf course) in the front office and they’re in dire need of help pretty much everywhere else.  Sure guys like DJ Augustine, Tyrus Thomas and The Parking Lot Shooter, Stephen Jackson, are decent but none of those guys are going to make fans forget about … ummm … uhhh … nevermind.  All signs seem to point to the Bobcats playing it safe and going with Marcus Morris from Kansas.  Honestly, we can’t imagine a less inspired pick.  Morris is a nice player but he’ll never ever be a star and the Bobcats need difference makers.  They should go with a more dynamic player in Burks.  He needs to get stronger and learn how to shoot to be a real impact player but he can score as well as board and even run the point in a pinch.  He could eventually give Bobcat fans something to cheer about.

Reminds us of:  Evan Turner/ Andre Iguodala

10. Milwaukee Bucks

Weakness:  Being named after a deer.

Probably:  Klay Thompson, 6-7, 206, SG, Washington State

WWTPPD: Klay Thompson, 6-7, 206, SG, Washington State

If it weren’t for a slew of injuries last year, the Bambi’s might have challenged the Bulls in the first round rather than picking 10th.  They have some quality, if flawed, players with Bogut manning the middle, a few decent rebounders (Ilyasova and Gooden) to go with slashers like Salmons and Magette and a young point in Jennings.  What they are desperately missing is someone who can knock down shots.  Luckily, the best shooter in the draft falls right into their laps.  What Thompson lacks in athleticism, he makes up for with his ability to knock down shots from anywhere on the court, pass and make smart plays.

Reminds us of:  Allan Houston/Mike Miller

11. Golden State Warriors

Weakness:  Being from “Golden State” just sounds silly. 

Probably:  Alec Burks

WWTPPD:  Bismack Biyombo

Golden State lacks any real interior presence, so grabbing Biyombo, the latest international man of mystery, is the right way to go, even if Burks were still on the board (unless of course picking Burks means they move Monta Ellis, the league’s most overrated player).  Hailing from the Congo and swearing that he’s only 18, Bismack is a physical marvel possessing the athleticism, size, speed and wingspan that teams covet and advanced defensive skills for a player of any age.  With the success of Serge Ibaka (another Congan … Congolese person …. Dude from the Congo), teams won’t shy away.  The catch?  Oh just something about being completely devoid of offensive skill.  No biggie.  If he’s really 18 and capable of learning, he could be a real star.  Jerry West is one front office guy secure enough in his job and legacy to make this choice.

Reminds us of:  Reminds us of:  Ben Wallace/Joel Anthony

12. Utah Jazz

Weakness:  Thinking it was a push-off 
 
Probably:  Chris Singleton, 6-9, 230, SF, Florida State

WWTPPD:  Jimmer Fredette, 6-3, 196, G, BYU

If they snag a forward with their first pick, there would be nothing stopping the Jazz from making 40,000 sportswriters wet dream come true by picking The Jimmer.  Fredette is by far the most divisive player in the draft.  Everyone has an opinion as to whether he’s the next Steve Nash or the next (gulp!) Adam Morrison.  While we like his potential, it’s just that, potential.  Yes he was fantastic all season at BYU but the adjustment to the NBA is going to be huge.  It’s not a question of skill or even the athleticism (he tested very well as the combine) or even the fact that he’s a white dude.  Above all else, to succeed, Jimmer is going to have to learn how to play without the ball being in his hands 99% of the time with the offense running completely around him.  His NBA fate will depend entirely on how he manages that transition.  Basketball is a game of confidence and it remains to be seen whether his ability to consistently knock down 28-footers and other high-degree-of-difficulty shots without the implicit confidence of his coach and skeptical teammates glaring at him.  That’s a whole other ballgame from being a legend at BYU.  Even if he falls short of making a complete transition, his ability to create shots off the dribble should guarantee him a 10-year career as a rotation player.  If, however, he can show the ability to both guard and distribute the ball, two things he did none of in college, he will be an absolute star.  People point to what Nash has become as proof of what Jimmer can be (both were viewed as scorers coming out of college) should take into account how difficult and lengthy the process was for Nash.  These things are not easy.  For the record, we think he falls a little short and becomes more like Jason Terry.

Reminds us of:  Early Steve Nash/Jason Terry/Ben Gordon

13. Phoenix Suns

Weakness:  A cheapskate owner who robbed the NBA of its most exciting team and Steve Nash of the end of his career

Probably:  Tristan Thompson, 6-9, 227, PF, Texas

WWTPPD:  Tristan Thompson, 6-9, 227, PF, Texas

Though a series of cheapskate moves, the Suns have taken the most exciting team in the league and turned it into lottery fodder by selling draft picks that went on to become players like Deng, Rondo and Iguodala and letting players like Joe Johnson and Amare Stoudemire go when they got too expensive.  Now, it’s basically Steve Nash and a bunch of guys.  If they had any decency they’d thank Nash for his contributions, trade him to New York and draft someone like Jimmer to try and reinvigorate things. (Btw, we think the Nash trade rumors are more about Phoenix’s interest in adding a local product in Derrick Williams to sell tickets than a true desire to move)  Instead, they’re’ preaching defense and looking to add someone like Thompson.  While he’s a bit undersized for the 4, Thompson is an athletic, high energy rebounder, shot blocker and scorer who dominates the offensive boards.  Plus, he’s a lefty.  Many people are enamored with his talent (even projecting him in the Top 5) but we see him more as a bench guy.

Reminds us of:  Less athletic Josh Smith/Brandon Bass

14. Houston Rockets

Weakness:  Yao’s feet

Probably:  Jonas Valanciunas

WWTPPD:  Donatas Motiejunas, 7-0, 220, PF, Lithuania

The Rockets have a lot of what you might call “assets” but less of what you might call “great players.”  Sure, Scola is nice and the combo of Lowery and Martin make a decent, balanced backcourt but at best these guys are really good role players in need of a true star to play off of.  Since it seems highly unlikely that castoffs like Terrance Williams and Hasheem Thabeet are going to become that star, Houston needs to look for upside with this pick.  And who possesses more upside than a 7-footer with an advanced offensive game who, if you turn your head and squint, reminds people of Dirk? Shit, visions of Dirk got a stiff like Nikoloz Tskitishvili drafted in the Top 5.  Right now his offensive game is more interior focused and his defense and rebounding need work, but a scorer who can get up and down the floor and pass seems like a worthy gamble. 

Reminds us of:  A more interior focused Andrea Bargnani/Dirk Nowitzki

15. Indiana Pacers

Weakness:  Roy Hibbert’s baby deer legs

Probably: Jimmer Fredette, 6-3, 196, G, BYU

WWTPPD:  Chris Singleton, 6-9, 230, SF, Florida State

With Jimmer, Burks and Thompson all gone, the Pacers are in a tough spot.  They could reach a bit for Marshon Brooks in an attempt to add scoring, reach a bit for size or they could play it safe with Singleton.  In our view, the Pacers play it safe.  While Singleton can knock down the open shot and finish in transition, his offensive game remains undeveloped.  His forte, however, is defense where he has the potential to guard 4 positions.  A combination of he and Paul George would be wicked on the wings and if either of them develops as an offensive player, the pieces (along with Collison and Hansbrough/Hibbert inside) could be there for a move up the standings.

Reminds us of:  Less offensively skilled Ron Artest/Bruce Bowen

16. Philadelphia 76ers

Weakness:  Being from Philadelphia

Probably:  Jordan Hamilton, 6-9, 228, SG/SF, Texas

WWTPPD:  Jordan Hamilton, 6-9, 228, SG/SF, Texas

Iguodala is gone eventually so getting a replacement is logical.  Hamilton is a pure a scorer with great range who’s skills could actually be a better compliment to Evan Turner than Iggy was.  He needs to get much better defensively and learn how to be a lot less selfish but his skill level suggests the type of player who puts up numbers and forces a dump team to give him a ton of money.  Because of his defined skill set and position, this could be way too low and he could go as high as 9 to the Bobcats. 

Reminds us of:  Rashard Lewis/Danny Granger/Stephen Jackson

17. New York Knicks

Weakness:  Donnie Walsh’s bladder

Probably: Iman Shumpert, 6-6, 222, G, Georgia Tech

WWTPPD:  Iman Shumpert, 6-6, 222, G, Georgia Tech

The Knicks need defense and real size but at this point in the draft those things are mutually exclusive.  Since Mike D’Antoni doesn’t like to play big guys anyway, the Knicks go with the remaining elite wing defender.  After an undistinguished career at Georgia Tech, Shumpert declared for the draft and was met with a chorus of shrugs.  Then the workouts started.  People knew he was a defensive commodity but when he began to show scoring ability people didn’t know he had and crazy athleticism (42 inch vertical), his stock soared.  If he can develop a consistent jump shot and an understanding of shot selection, he could be a steal.  Played PG in college but probably more of a wing in the pros.

If Jimmer slipped it might cause outgoing GM Donnie Walsh to wet his pants for the third or fourth time today. 

Reminds us of:  Larry Hughes/ Tony Allen

18.  Washington Wizards

Weakness:  Bending to the will of special interest groups

Probably:  Markieff Morris, 6-9, 240, PF/C, Kansas

WWTPPD: Marcus Morris

If the Bobs were looking at Marcus at 10, The Wiz getting him at 19 would be a steal.  While we’re not huge fans of his game, we do get what teams see in Morris - he comes from a great program, possesses top notch basketball IQ and has proven that he can score both inside and out.  His upside is limited but he should be at least a solid rotation guy.

Reminds us of:  Antawn Jamison/Shane Battier/Brandon Bass/Carl Landry

19. Charlotte Bobcats (from Hornets/Blazers)

Weakness:  Boris Diaw’s love of chocolate

Probably:  Nicola Vucevic, 7-0, 260, C, USC

WWTPPD:  Nicola Vucevic, 7-0, 260, C, USC

After grabbing a guard early, the Bobs get lucky with Vucevic falling in their laps.  He’s skilled, scored and rebounded at USC under NBA-type Kevin O’Neill, and measured a legit 7 feet, 260.  If a lack of athleticism doesn’t doom him, he could develop into a solid starting center.

Reminds us of:  Marc Gasol/Brook Lopez/Chris Kaman/Mehmet Okur

20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Grizzlies/Jazz)

Weakness:  HHHHHHHHHHHNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Probably:  Marshon Brooks, 6-5, 196, SG, Providence

WWTPPD:  Marshon Brooks, 6-5, 196, SG, Providence

The T’Wolves have pulled off the rare feat of building a roster of full of both redundancy and holes.  Brooks should help in that regard by filling the hole at shooting guard.  At Providence he proved he could score by creating his own shot.  In the NBA he’ll have to prove he can do it efficiently and within the team concept.  Good rebounder for his position. 
 
Reminds us of:  Jamal Crawford/Nick Young

21. Portland Trail Blazers

Weakness:  Not Greg Oden’s whippy-whop

Probably:  Kenneth Faried, 6-8, 225, PF, Morehead State

WWTPPD:  Kenneth Faried, 6-8, 225, PF, Morehead State

Reminiscent of The Worm, Faried does one thing and he does it fantastically – rebound.  Sure it was at Moorehead State but 14 boards are 14 boards and rebounding is the one stat that translates across levels of play.  He’s a bit undersized and doesn’t play much offense but he’s a beast who works his ass off on every play so the downside is minimal. The Project endorses Kenneth Faried.

Reminds us of:  Dennis Rodman/Smaller Joakim Noah

22. Denver Nuggets

Weakness:  Neck tattoos

Probably:  Tobias Harris, 6-8, 223, F, Tennessee

WWTPPD:  Tobias Harris, 6-8, 223, F, Tennessee

Harris might be the most underrated player in the draft due to his lack of elite athleticism or one defined skill.  What he lacks in those areas he makes up for with a superbly well-rounded game, the ability to create mismatches at the 4 with his ball handling and excellent court awareness.  Had he stayed in school for 4 years, he could have developed into a National Player of the Year Candidate like his closest comp.

Reminds us of:  Shane Battier/Jared Dudley

23. Houston Rockets (from Magic/Suns) 

Weakness:  Being from a boring-ass city

Probably:  Donatas Motiejunas

WTPPD:  Nikola Mirotic, 6-10, 226, SF, Serbia

We have them taking Motiejunas earlier and with something like 12 players under contract, the Rockets can afford to pick a player to stash overseas and will undoubtedly be again looking at upside with their second first round pick.  He’s likely to stay on Europe for a few more years but he has the prototypical point-forward game with the size to play up front but the shooting, passing and ball handling skills of a guard.  Even if he never plays in Houston his rights are an asset in their search for a star.

Reminds us of:  Hedo Turkoglu

24. Oklahoma City Thunder

Weakness:  Being a stolen team

Probably:  Kyle Singler, 6-9, 228, SF, Duke

WWTPPD: Tyler Honeycutt, 6-8, 187, SF, UCLA

The Thunder have their stars in place – Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka and Perkins – now they have to fill in around those guys with complimentary pieces.  While they’re apparently enamored with Kyle Singler, we think Honeycutt fits better because of his ability to defend.  He needs to get stronger but he’s extremely unselfish, defends, moves the ball and could be a nice complimentary scorer.  Plus, he comes from a UCLA system that consistently produces NBA caliber players who didn’t wow in college. 

Reminds us of:  Landry Fields/Josh Childress

25. Boston Celtics

Weakness: Trusting Shaq

Probably:  Jeremy Tyler, 6-11, 263, C, Japan

WWTPPD: Jeremy Tyler, 6-11, 263, C, Japan

The Celts need size, youth and guys who can develop into building block talents going forward.  At this stage in the draft, those types of players come with serious baggage.  Tyler certainly has his fair share of that.  Physically he’s an elite talent with the size, touch and athleticism to match any NBA big right now.  Mentally it’s a different story; he skipped his senior year to play in Israel, flamed out, and then ended up in Japan.  He’s immature both on and off the court but for a team staring its own mortality in the mirror, it’s a risk worth taking.

Reminds us of:  Andrew Bynum/DeAndre Jordan

26. Dallas Mavericks

Weakness:  Bones

Probably:  Nikola Mirotic

WWTPPD:  Markieff Morris, 6-9, 240, PF/C, Kansas

There might not be a less exciting pick in the draft, but Morris could actually help the champs.  He’s athletic, tough, and smart and with his size and shooting ability he could be a solid player off the bench, taking some of the minutes doled out to Brian Cardinal.  Has the potential to be a tough enforcer with a jump shot. 

Reminds us of:  Charles Oakley/Antonio Davis

27. New Jersey Nets (from Lakers)

Weakness:  Trusting Brooklynwill lure stars

Probably:  Reggie Jackson, 6-3, 200, G, Boston College

WWTPPD:  Malcolm Lee, 6-6, 198, G, UCLA

The Nets need to do everything in their power to keep Deron Williams or the start of The Russian’s reign will be a disaster.  While we support the risk, if Williams walks the Nets will limp into Brooklyn a broken team with no assets, having traded essentially two Top 5 picks for nothing.  While Lee won’t convince D-Will to stay, he’s the type of high-ceiling player (another UCLA product) the Nets should gamble on.  He’s a point guard by trade but possesses the size, athleticism and defensive skills to play off the ball and can definitely play with Williams.  He needs to improve his jumper.  We are way higher on Lee than most.

Reminds us of:  Larry Hughes/George Hill

28. Chicago Bulls (from Heat/Raptors)

Weakness:  The Rose/Jordan comparisons

Probably:  Justin Harper, 6-9, 228, PF, Richmond

WWTPPD: Reggie Jackson, 6-3, 200, G, Boston College

The Bulls need players who can take scoring  pressure off of Derrick Rose and Jackson, an explosive athlete who can shoot, get to the rim, rebound and defend, could be the perfect compliment off the bench or alongside the MVP at times.  If he hadn’t shut down his workouts after a knee injury (or a promise from the Heat), he’d have gone much higher.  If his shooting improvement as a junior is for real, lots of teams will regret passing on him.

Reminds us of:  Gilbert Arenas

29. San Antonio Spurs

Weakness:  The inevitability of age

Probably:  David Bertans, 6-10, 210, SF, Latvia 

WWTPPD:  Josh Selby, 6-3, 195 G, Kansas

Maybe Bertans is the best shooter in Europe (which makes him essentially Matt Bonner) but how does Josh Selby, who enters college as an elite prospect, joins a loaded Kansas team, and gets hurt and struggles, fall out of the first round?  We don’t see it and if the Spurs are going to move Parker or Hill, this seems like the perfect landing spot.  Players with his kind of talent don’t get passed on for too long.  Maybe he’s not a true point but he’s extremely athletic, can get to the rim and shoot from deep, is always in attack mode and defends both guard positions. 

Reminds us of:  Monta Ellis

30. Chicago Bulls

Weakness:  Tom Thibodeau's personal style

Probably:  Norris Cole, 6-2, 175, PG, Cleveland State/Charles Jenkins, 6-3, 216, PG, Hofstra

WWTPPD:  Kyle Singler, 6-9, 228, SF, Duke

The Bulls addressed their backcourt need at 28 so with the last pick in the first round, they go with a college veteran and senior superlative “Most Likely to be Called a Competitor” (unathletic white guy).  Still, there are things to like about his game, he’s versatile, a good all-around shooter and a competitor (there it is) who plays smart and within the team concept.  He could develop into a nice back-up for Deng and give the Bulls some additional outside shooting.

Reminds us of:  Shane Battier/Linus Kleiza

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Real Hoops - Old Man Game and the Death of LeBron James


With a deceptive 4-2 series victory, the Dallas Avengers … err … Mavericks are NBA Champions.  Forgive us if we're sad that the most compelling finals in recent memory is over but now we’re left to stare into the abyss of a summer of baseball and lockout (first NFL, then NBA) discussion.  Beyond all the big names (LeBron, Dirk, Wade, Kidd, Bosh and, of course, Ilgauskas and Dampier), what made the series so interesting was the stark and absolute contrasts these teams represented.  From the way the teams were built (Long term Design v. Team-in-a-Bag) to their cliche storylines (veterans triumphing over struggle v. young players seeking instant gratification) to core philosophy (depth v. stars) to their franchise players (The one who stayed v. The one who bolted), the off-court differences were plentiful.   

On the court, it was a little more straightforward, boiling down to the age old battle between “Young Man Game” and “Old Man Game.”  Don’t let the names deceive you, the difference depends more on style than age.  Young Man’s Game puts a premium on athleticism and speed with a strong dose of ego.  It's a brand of basketball that involes lots of one-on-one, running, jumping, and doing things that not everyone can do.  The best of these guys play hard, in a frenzy even, but not always smart, turning down open jumpers to get to the hole (where they often absorb a hard foul) and suffering from mental lapses.  In contrast to YMG’s brashness, OMG’s swagger is marked by a sense of calm and composure.  These guys may play a step slower but without any wasted motion, going for the strip instead of the block and knocking down "their" shot instead of searching for a dunk.  They're short on highlights but long on team play and rarely commit carless errors.  So, what happens when the two contrasting styles meet?  Exactly what happened in the finals.  The young team runs and guns its way to an early lead but, because of their composure, the older guys slowly work their way back in until they suddenly have the lead then suffocate the kids. 

So, if we knew this all along, why didn’t we bet heavily on the Mavs?  Becuase there's always a middle ground.  The scariest (and best) players are the ones who find a way to combine the athleticism and aggression of YMG with the savvy of OMG.  Those guys NEVER lose and, through the first 3 rounds of the playoffs, the Heat looked like they might have found that elusive combination.  They were calm and dominant, putting teams away with clinical precision and utilizing their physical advantages in all the right ways.  The league was ready to be conquered and we, for one, were preparing to welcome our new, dancing, preening overlords.  Fortunately (unless you’re someone who’s ALREADY tired of hearing about how LeBron hasn’t won a title) the Mavs saved the day.  They weathered the Heat’s early storm, stuck to their game plan and forced the Heat to reverted to their comfort zone, playing YMG. 

It’s tempting to draw conclusions about what’s good and bad about the NBA after a series like this.  It’s easy to paint the Mavs victory as validation of the age-old American values that won us WWII; things like hard work, sacrifice and teamwork.  In that same vein, it’s tempting to vilify the Heat for their precociousness and attempt at a “shortcut” and point to them as proof of what’s wrong with America these days.  And while doing so would certainly spare many hands from a wringing, it misses one key point - The Heat should have won the series.  And they would have, had the presumed best player in the world  not …. had a bad series?  gotten tired?  been shut down by the Mavs defense? choked? 

Your guess is as good as ours on how that sentence should end (now that “Lost” is off the air, LeBron’s summer swoon has become the biggest mystery on television) but, as much as we all want to try to give credit to the Mavs, tell the story of Dirk’s redemption and recalibrate the careers of guys like Kidd, Marion, Terry, Chandler and Barea, this series will always some back to LeBron.  More specifically, the death of King James. 

(We wonder how smart does Pippen feel no for saying that MJ was the best “scorer” ever but LeBron might be the best “player?”  Not only is he wrong, but the thing about Pippen’s statements is that they weren’t really about LeBron and MJ, they were about him and his problem with not receiving enough credit during the Bulls' glorious run.  Scottie likely sees a lot of himself in LeBron, so when he says is that while MJ got all the points and the credit, he, like LeBron, was just as good or better because of his all-around game.
Thank you Scottie, that will be $350 and you can see the receptionist about your next appointment)

Yeah that’s right.  Yell it from the rooftops.  Shout it in the streets.  The King is dead.  Ding, dong bitches.  No matter what happens after this, the LeBron James we thought (or is it wanted) to know is gone and the era in which we blindly proclaimed him to be the best player in the league is over.  It’s not a stretch to say that in 15 years when we try to put him in historical perspective, his career is now going to be broken down into two distinct time periods – Before Meltdown and After Meltdown. 

If you look back you can see the circumstances of his demise being set in motion a little over a year ago.  As he walked off the court in his last game as a Cavalier and tore off his jersey before he even got to the locker room, perhaps we should have seen that as the first symbolic crack in his armor.  Then with “The Decision” he gave us our first inkling that maybe despite his otherworldly talent, he might not want to be the best.  And after the farcical “Welcoming Party” any remaining public’s affection was set on fire.  He was now the villain.  And while some hoped he might embrace the role, to be the Black Swan, he never seemed comfortable. 

Still, none of this prepared us for what we saw in the past few weeks.  After virtuoso performances against his nemesis, the Celtics, and the newest challenger to his throne, Derrick Rose and the Bulls, LeBron seemed to have regained his stature.  The questions about him became only a rumor - suddenly, he was clutch, had the killer instinct and stood out even when paired with another elite talent like Dwayne Wade.  He was finally the guy we wanted him to be – a potent scorer, efficient distributor and disruptive defender all rolled into one, he was Magic Jordan.  Then something went horribly wrong and in the span of 5 games he destroyed it all.  Not just the goodwill regained in the past few weeks but the benefit of the doubt he’d earned during his eight years in the league.    

It wasn’t just that he played poorly.  It was the way he played without aggression.  Without engagement.  Without want.  The contrast was never more apparent then when viewed against the other two stars in the series.  For every head-long foray by Wade or head-fake by Dirk, LeBron answered with a head-scratching jumper or passed-up opportunity to abuse an overmatched defender.  Maybe, as we pointed out with Shaq, we’re burdening LeBron with our expectations.  And maybe that’s not fair.  But it’s reality and The Chosen One, The King, The Bringer of Talents to Places Far and Wide, can never be the same in our eyes again.  This isn’t baseball, a sport so accustomed to slumps that the “best player”, A-Rod, can spend a large portion of his career never getting a big hit and maintain his spot.  This is basketball a game in which the best player can exert almost complete control.  If his shot isn’t falling, he can attack the basket or crash the boards.  If that doesn’t work, he can do something else, try a little harder.  And if none of those things work, his team loses.  But at least he tried.  

Still, LeBron still has a choice.  The second part of his career (LeBron-AM) is like a “Choose Your Own Adventure” book (or for those of us who live in the modern age, an open world video game – “Grand Theft LeBron”):  

You’re standing at a cross-roads.  Your left your hometown team, a place where you were beloved like no other to join your friends in pursuit of a championship.  In your first year with your friends, you reached the finals, however, in large part due to your inability/unwillingness to assert yourself, your team fell a precious two games short of its stated goal.  Now, you stand as a crossroads.  You can: 

1. Keep doing what you’re doing and telling yourself it’s not your fault.  Spend the summer shooting commercials and attempting to become a global icon.  Change nothing, improve incrementally and continue to attempt to be “The Man.”  To choose this path turn to page 47 and become the NBA’s version of A-Rod.

2. Sublimate your ego and adjust your game to make your Franchise-level teammate better by focusing more on defending, playing off the ball and getting others involved to the detriment of your own statistics.  To choose this path turn to page 56 and win multiple titles while pursuing your destiny as the evolutionary love-child of Magic Johnson and Scottie Pippen.

3. Forget your friends, family, business interests and the rest of the outside world and disappear for 3 months.  Lock yourself in a gym and work.  Hard.  Develop a low-post game with a fade-away, jump hook and whatever else you need and find the confidence to make your jump shot a weapon when you need it, not just when it’s falling.   Above all else, develop a go-to move that you use in times of high-stress.  Return only when your skills are fully honed.  To choose this path turn to page 67 and decimate the league for the next decade becoming the player everyone thought you could be and go down as greatest basketball player to ever walk the planet.

The choice is yours, LeBron. 

(Yes, we think he’s totally going to read this and, at his HOF induction, thank The Persnickety Project for being his inspiration.  Just you wait and see!!)