As they've done countless times before, the Colts found themselves playing in the National Football League's showcase game on Sunday night, this time against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And like so many times before, it was a close game filled with late fourth quarter drama with the Steelers winning on a late field goal. Only this time, nobody cared. Never has the power of one player been felt so spectacularly.
In case you've been in a coma for the last 6 months, Peyton Manning is injured and his team is in trouble. With Peyton on the shelf, the Colts, a team that has finagled a playoff spot for 9 straight years in a league built on parity, looks lucky to win 4 games. Yes, Peyton is that good and, because of what he means to his team, the way they've designed everything around his singular talents (to get and hold the lead), he's inarguably the most valuable player in the NFL. (We won't, but if you're tempted to use this season as an invitation for a Manning/Brady debate, just keep in mind that despite the 11 wins Matt Cassel managed in Brady's absence, that team went from 16-0 and one glorious feat of skill and courage away from being the greatest team of all time to missing the playoffs.) So it's tempting to chalk up the Colts' misfortunes entirely to Peyton. But that would be missing the larger point - even before he got hurt, the Colts were a team in decline. Aside from Manning, the roster is not one of a Super Bowl contender. Take a look, its absolutely brutal, lacking both in true top end talent and more importantly depth. Just ask the Dream Team how important that is.
Browse through If you want to see just how little top end talent they have, browse through the "Scouts Inc. Top 200" and, other than Peyton at #2 overall, you'll find only 5 other Colts dotting the list. The law of averages says every team should have 6 guys on the list. But when you account for putrid teams like the Chiefs and Broncos, perennial playoff teams like the Colts should have more. As for depth, in a sport that has 52 man rosters, the Colts have 80% of their payroll tied up in 10 players with 30% of the total gong to Manning alone. When the rest of those players are guys on the wrong side of their primes like Wayne, Clark, Freeney and Mathis, the picture starts to become clearer.
With this model of team building the Colts are essentially forced to sit out the annual free agent spending spree, forgoing their chance to chase guys bad (Haynesworth) and good (Asomugha). Perhaps that's the preferable path, why spend big when you've already identified your stars? But to execute that plan effectively, the team needs to be able to fortify its ranks somehow, which means killing it in the draft.
That's something the Colts just don't do anymore. They quite simply do not have a single difference maker on their roster under the age of 30. From 2001 to 2004, the Colts drafted 6 pro-bowl players that formed the core of their Super Bowl winning team - Reggie Wayne (#30, 2001), Dwight Freeney (#11, 2002), Dallas Clark (#24, 2003), Robert Mathis (5th round, 2003), Cato June (6th round, 2003) and Bob Sanders (2nd round, 2004). Since, 2005, they've drafted 2 players who have made the Pro Bowl - Joseph Addai and Antoine Bathea - and none since 2006. Check out their first and second round picks since 2007 (Colts fans should avert their eyes):
2007:
1st round, pick 32: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State. Drafted to seamlessly replace the aging Marvin Harrison. Blew out his knee after being awarded the starting job in 2009 and spent half of 2010 in the IR. 99 career receptions for 1300 yards. 5 catches in the past two years.
2nd round, pick 10: Tony Ugoh, T, Arkansas. Drafted to seamlessly replace the retired Tarik Glenn. Released after 3 seasons and 27 inauspicious starts.
2008:
First round pick traded for Tony Ugoh.
2nd round, pick 28: Mike Pollack, C, Arizona State. Not drafted for his looks. On-again, off-again starter.
2009
1st round, pick 27: Donald Brown, RB, UCONN. Drafted to seamlessly replace Joseph Addai. Piled up less than 800 yards in two seasons with a 3.8 yard per carry average. Addai is still underwhelming the nation with his performances.
2nd round, pick 24: Fili Moala, DT, USC. Started 16 games in 2010 and produced virtually no stats.
2010
1st round, pick 31: Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU. Drafted to provide a boost to the pash rush but ended up with only 6 tackles and zero sacks in 12 games during his rookie year. Not a good NFL player.
2nd, round, pick 31: Pat Angerer, LB, Iowa. Excellent name. Good volume tackler. Current and likely future starter.
Of the rest of their 27 picks in those drafts, the only other current starters are Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Kavell Conner, and Jerraud Powers.
To put that in perspective, since 2005 our current Super Bowl Champions, the Green Bay Packers have drafted Aaron Rogers, A.J. Hawk, Greg Jennings, Desmond Bishop, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, Clay Matthews, B.J. Raji, James Starks, and Bryan Bulaga. Every single one of those guys are better than their counterparts on the Colts. Maybe its unfair to compare the Colts to the class of the league but didn't we used to talk the same way about them? And in case yore tempted to chalk up the Colts' draft problems to their habit of picking at the end of rounds only two of Green Bay's stars (Hawk and Raji) were drafted inside the Top 20.
In 1997, the Spurs were a perennial contender that always seemed to fall short. There best player was David Robinson, a league icon and, for all his stats, had his clutchness questioned at times. Coming off a 56-win season, Robinson would injure his back and break his foot, missing all but 6 games of the regular season. Without its best player, the team would finish with a 20-62 record, the third worst in the league, and thanks to the magic of the NBA draft lottery, earn a chance to draft Tim Duncan. Two seasons later, they'd win their first of two titles with Robinson and Duncan and then win two more after the Admiral sailed off into retirement. Thanks to a single freak injury, the Spurs were able to draft a player that allowed them to slowly transition from a team built around one all-time great to another without the painful rebuilding process and get the most out of what was left of the best (to that point) player in their franchise history. Without the injury, maybe they find the right combination one year with a healthy Robinson and win a title, or maybe they find a diamond in the rough with a later pick. Still, without that cracked bone, they never become one of the most successful franchises in recent NBA history.
The 2011 Colt are presented with a similar opportunity. Manning has already won the Super Bowl he needed to validate his career but, on some level, he's similar to Robinson, with Brady playing the role of Hakeem. But time is running out if the Colts hope to put together a roster that can compete for another title while #18 is still donning the a horseshoe helmet. Without a doubt, one player can make a much greater impact in the NBA than the NFL and, unfortunately for them, the Duncan of this draft happens to play the same position as Peyton but still, finding an impact player to rejuvenate the team is not out to the question. And while picking in the Top 5 is no guarantee of success, the margin for error is a bit wider. Even if you miss out on the absolute best player at 3, you're still likely to find a starter. Do it at 28 and you're likely to find a bum. If the Colts hit in the pick, they could add a player who can dominate his position in a way few do, like these guys did.
Wouldn't an interior disruptor like Ndamukong Suh (#2, 2010) instantly turn their mediocre defense into a feared one and help get a few more productive years out of Freeney and Mathis?
How about a tackle like Joe Thomas or Jake Long to protect Manning's blind side and give him more time to pick apart defenses?
Or a receiver like Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green to compliment and then take over for Reggie Wayne?
Or a running back like Adrian Peterson or Darren McFadden to do for Peyton what TD did for Elway?
Or a pass-rusher like Von Miller?
Or game-changing safety like Eric Berry?
Or, what if they found themselves with the #1 overall pick and the chance to draft a player some consider the most sure thing since Peyton Manning? Would they take Andrew Luck, have him learn at the feet of one of the greatest of all time before unleashing him on the world like the Packers did with Aaron Rodgers. With one move they could have the most important position in football covered for 25 straight years.
Or, alternatively, trade him to the 49ers or another QB needy team for a king's ransom of picks and try to fill all their holes at once.
While its too early to tell where the Colts will finish (we think Peyton plays the year, if only for a few games to show himself that he can come back and be ready to go full bore in 2012) and if any of the prospects will separate themselves as elite but with potential stars like Luck, Kalil, Coples, Jones, Richardson, Barkley, the possibilities are both intriguing and endless. But, if they play their cards right, this could end up being the best thing that ever happened to them. If they can manage not to screw up the draft pick, of course.
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