Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Real Baseball - Hot Stove - Welcome to the Arms Race Philadelphia

After Carl Crawford signed with the Red Sox (as we predicted - gotta pimp it when we get one right, please ignore the rest of the misfires), we had planned to write a post that would have resurrected the old cliche-ish cold war references and played up with rebirth of the arms race between those two teams after Cliff Lee signed with the Yankees.  So what happens?  The Phillies (the HATED Phillies) swoop in and sign Lee to a below market deal.  Unbefuckinlievable.  Couldn't be more stunned that they were the "Mystery Team" (Registered Trademark: Scott Boras)  That kids is why its better to be lazy and not try to come up with story ideas in advance.

It was announced this morning (or late last night when we were sleeping) that Lee is returning to Philadelphia for $120m over 5 years ($24m per) with an "easily reachable" vesting option for the sixth, spurning larger offers from both the Texas Rangers (apparently it was too hot for him there) and the big bad New York Yankees (apparently it was too hot in a different way!! Seriously though, we love the way that now that Lee didn't sign, the New York media is breaking out all the "he was afraid of New York" garbage like they did with LeBron.  Shut up you idiots.  New York is a great city but not every single person in the world burns to live and work there.  It's not about fear, it's about committing 7 years of your life to somewhere and wanting a different quality of life.  You can go back to worshipping your new hero Amare Stoudemire now, enjoy 5 straight years of the 6 seed before his knees go bad).  Despite all the assumptions that he wouldn't leave any money on the table and, accordingly, sign with the Yanks (they of course had the biggest offer) Lee opted to return to a place that he and his wife apparently loved.  Gotta give him credit for that. 

After the events of the past year, it's also incredibly interesting that the Phils would even be involved in the bidding.  A year ago, they moved Lee after they were able to obtain Roy Halladay because: (1) Lee was committed to being a free agent and wouldn't sign and extension; and (2) they swore up and down that they couldn't afford both Halladay and Lee's presumed big pay day (Ruben Amaro made about 500 radio appearances trying to explain it to the fans).  Philly fans were apoplectic, lamenting what could have been. Sure replacing Lee with Roy Oswalt eased some of the pain, but fans still felt slightly burned.  Now, they have all three with Cole Hamels to boot.  Apparently that budget they were so concerned about disappeared.  Welcome to the arms race Philly. (if the Yanks and Sox are the USSR and USA in some order depending on your allegiances, then that makes the Phillies, China?  That's cool with us, as Mets fans its easy to hate those pinko, commie bastards). 

From a financial standpoint, getting Lee for $24m per and a max of 6 years is an absolute steal in this environment.  With all the talk over the last few weeks of Texas and New York both being willing to go to 7 years (which would have been the equivalent of franchise death by slow poisoning), a 5-year deal, even with a 6th year option, seems positively sane.  Lee is already 33 so the end of the deal might be a little rank but the majority of the contract will bring Cy Young-level production.  (He'll have to retain his absurd command to maintain his dominance since he only has average stuff and if that slips at all, he could be a lot closer to the guy who was in AAA 4 years ago then the guy who dominated the last 2 postseasons.  Still, we'd only out those odds at like 30%, but you've been warned Phinatics).

As a baseball move, it's also pretty unassailable.  You can never ever ever have enough pitching and a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels is absurd.  Sure, having something north of $65m invested in your starting rotation isn't ideal, you can't be anything but frightened if you're going to try to beat them during the regular season.  What we all have to remember is that pitching isn't the reason they didn't win the World Series last year.  They went into the postseason with the one of the better performing rotations ever and lost to the Giants because they didn't hit.  Lee doesn't change that.  Still, they'll be better, if only by the difference from Oswalt to Lee come playoff time (though its nice to be able to buy your playoff tickets in December). 

They could always decide to swap one of their pitchers for a righty bat to replace Werth. (this deal makes you wonder if the Nats hadn't gone nuts on Werth if the Phils had a chance to keep him).  We doubt they won't move Hamels (who could get them almost any hitter in the league) so Oswalt would be the obvious candidate.  His salary ($17m) and, we think, still valid no trade clause, makes that complicated. But, if their budget is no longer a problem, maybe they'll just go out and buy someone to fill that hole.  Who knows?

Now that all the big guys are signed, it's pretty clear that the Red Sox and the Phils have separated themselves from the pack, emerging as the favorites for their respective leagues' World Series spots with the Yankees shut out and left to scramble to fill their holes through trades.  (not really sure how that will turn out but if they sign Russell Martin, as expected, Montero or some other catching prospect figures to go somewhere for a pitcher.) On a totally irrelevant note: The Mets still suck.  Sure, the playoffs are a lottery but we'd rather be favorites.

One quick note on the Crawford deal.  We love it.  He's the type of guy, an athletic hard-worker still in his prime (28) that teams should overpay.  Even if his steals decline (which they will) he'll remain a great defender int he small left field of Fenway and should stay steady at 18-20 bombs a year with a good average and could make a living of going the other way and knocking doubles off the wall.  Really don't see much downside in this deal. 

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