After about 4 months of on and off, protracted negotiations, it seems that a deal that lands Carmelo Anthony with the New Jersey Nets may finally be on the horizon. (Even with all the overdone drama this thing is still "Mad Men" to LeBron's "Grey's Anatomy"-like decision.)
The proposed deal would be a three teamer in which the Nets would acquire Anthony and Chauncey Billups from Denver as well as Rip Hamilton from Detroit while sending out 3/4 of their roster. In exchange for their star, the Nuggets would rid themselves of Billups' contract and get two future first-round picks along with #3 pick in last year's draft, PF Derrick Favors, PG Devin Harris, Anthony Morrow (so much for our idea that the Nets play "Three-Morrow, Three-Morrow" as sung by Little Orphan Annie every time he hits from deep) as well as Quinton Ross, Ben Uzoh and Stephen Graham, a.k.a salary cap fodder. For their troubles, the Pistons would also shed Hamilton's contract while picking up the incomparable Johan Petro and the expiring contract (and corpse) of Troy Murphy. After being reported to be "on the ten yard line" the deal is now being held up by the Nuggets greedy insistence that they also be able to dump Al Harrington and his contract they everyone knew was a bad idea the minute they signed it (four years and $28 million, signed this off season) in any deal.
It may fall apart or it may not but, with Melo on the move somewhere at some point, we might as well get out in front of the thing and start dealing with it. Anytime a player of this caliber - a 26 year old forward with the 4th highest scoring average among active players - is traded is comes down to two things: (1) Carmelo; and (2) everybody else.
Carmelo
How you feel about the deal basically comes down to how you feel about Carmelo Anthony. Are you blinded by the scoring numbers, the two seasons over 28 ppg and the average of over 20 in every year of his pro career, and think that he could be the franchise savior? Or do you see him as a truly special scorer - perhaps the best in the game today - but recognize the holes in his game and understand that he's not yet a guy who can win you a title?
If you're in the former group - GO CRAZY!! Melo is coming to save your dreadful team, just like Amare is doing across the river. Buy the jersey and enjoy the ride, just don't go taking off from work for the championship parade yet.
As you might have surmised from the very slanted way in which we posed the question, we're in the latter category and we hope to whatever people hope to that the franchise understands what its getting. Carmelo is a great player with one exceptional skill - he can score on anyone at anytime in any situation. A guy like that is incredibly useful to have on your team; he's no savior but he could be a very nice first step.
Throughout the history of basketball, at every level from pick-up to pros, the the guys who can score have gotten the accolades and attention. Putting the ball in the basket is cool. Even the most uninformed person watching a gem for 2 minutes will pick out those guys. Nobody gives a shit about the guy who sets screens or plays help defense or crashes the boards. They're not the stars. The guys putting up points are the stars. In the NBA (even in this enlightened age of statistical analysis) points get paid.
But not all scorers are created equal. There are two categories: (1) Scorers; (2) Ballers, each with a completely different way to get their points and a impact their team.
We've all played with Scorers and they're easy to spot. They're the guys on the wing that miss your brilliant cut across the lane because they're too busy pounding the ball or making 47 jab steps to set up their move. It's not their fault necessarily, despite the air of confidence, deep down these guys are insecure. They need the cheers that come with getting buckets. So they adopt the role, carry the mantra of the Scorer and become single minded in their pursuits and can't be bothered with much else, conserving their energy on defense. They're "ballstoppers" if you're being nice, "black holes" if you're not. The thing about scorers is if they're really good at what they do (like Melo or Iverson or 'Nique) they can carry a team for awhile. They'll win lots of regular season games, author a bunch of Sportscenter highlights, make the playoffs, and if surrounded by right talent (read: guys willing to sublimate their egos and do ALL of the dirty work) maybe get you a chance to be stomped by the Lakers in the finals. They need volume to be effective. You run plays for them and they get their points. You don't they struggle. While they make their shots, the was they do it, inefficiently and with the ball all the time, they take everyone else out of the game and that doesn't work against the really good teams.
"Ballers" are a whole different animal. They don't necessarily stand out quite as much on your first glance, but true fans know who they are and why they're so good. They're the guys who hit you on that cut for a layup but on the next play get a return pass from you and knock down a jumper, later maybe they get an easy bucket in transition or on a put back or off a back door cut. Sure they have the ball a ton but its because they're just better than everyone else and they keep their teammates involved and engaged. They grab a hand full of boards and assists, spend some of their precious energy dealing with the other teams best guy in crunch time, and when you look at the score sheet you see that not only did their team win but they lead everyone in points without you really even noticing. These guys (Duncan, Bird, Jordan (after he got "it"), LeBron, Wade, Kobe (at times) understand that to win big, basketball has to be a team game that involves everyone. At their best they can dominate without the ball and are confident enough in their station to let other guys shine. They're efficient and they make their teammates better. They are the true superstars, few and far between.
Right now, Melo is a Scorer and an inefficient one at that. He dominates the ball, averages more shots per minute than anybody and shoots a below average percentage. While some of that can be attributed to the burden of carrying a team on a nightly-basis, that really only reinforces our point. The holes in his game are obvious. Sure he rebounds well for his position (8.3 this year) and could play the 4 in a small-ball line-up, but he's not a gifted or particularly willing passer or defender. If the Nets (or any other team that acquires him) expects to build a team that features him AND contends for championships, they're going to be disappointed. You can win with him as your best player (without a really strong 1A who has complimentary skills like Dwight Howard or a healthy Yao Ming) but you're not going to win big. The annals of the NBA are littered with teams lead by high scoring guys who, to the amazement of so many, couldn't get over the hump.
The organization needs to understand that, once Carmelo signs the 3 year, $65m extension (he's going to be overpaid) that needs to be the first of many big steps. The Nets will be better with Melo but if they think he's going to be their LeBron and make up for whiffing on the 2010 class or something they're delusional. The Russian needs to be committed to spending and finding creative ways (in Billy King we trust?) to get the right pieces around him. Maybe Lopez (who's regressed this year) becomes the inside compliment that Melo needs to be more efficient but this can't be their only big move. They need to find a way to get another player as good or better than Melo to be a true contender and two guys who were great 5 years ago ain't going to cut it. Without more thoughtful and purposeful moves the best they'll do is getting bounced by the Heat in the second round every year. So some maybe that will be fun to watch. For us, we think watching a giants Russian billionaire raise the Larry O'Brien trophy with Jay-Z while a bewildered David Stern wonders what went wrong is fun.
One final note, it's always possible that Melo could use his move to Jersey as an opportunity to reinvent his career and become a more well-rounded player, kinda like Amare has done in NYC to a degree, but if he's really forcing a move from Denver because he wants to be paid and play in NYC to make his wife happy, we're not feeling too good about those possibilities.
Everybody Else
While Melo is the key to the future trajectory of the franchise, it's the other guys who will determine how it works in the short term. Apparently, he insisted that, as a condition of signing the extension that the Nets smartly required be part of any deal, the Nets needed to acquire additional players that would be worthy to play of being on the same court with him. Those guys? Former Detroit Piston teammates Chauncey Billups (Anthony's teammate in Denver) and Rip Hamilton. While neither is the player they once were (with Rip having an especially down year) they are smart veterans who play efficiently and know how to win and should be able to mold their games around Melo to get the most of their collective talent (if, or course, Chauncey backs off his statement of wanting a buy-out if he ends up in Newark). A starting 5 of Billups, Hamilton, Anthony, Lopez and Rebounding Machine Kris Humphries should be good enough to challenge for a spot at the bottom of the playoffs this season if they get anything from their bench. Considering the sheer number of players the Nets would lose in the proposed trade - leaving them with Travis Outlaw, Jordan Farmar and Susha Vujacic as back-ups - the bench piece is going to be an issue. Not only are none of these guys particularly good but they'll be extremely lacking in size. They'll need to scramble to find guys in the D-League or street free agents and hope they strike gold with one or two who can come in and give competent NBA minutes.
(Interestingly, while the team wouldn't be close to what the Celtics are defensively, they do have a similar offensive profile. Billups could play the Rondo role as distributor role while Hamilton does his best Ray Allen impression working off the ball and running through screens, Melo would be the go-to guy and Lopez would hang out down low getting putbacks and hitting the occasional jumper. Humpries just needs to work on his robotic post moves and constant scowl to be the next Kendrick Perkins. It would be a JV version but it could work. Just a thought.)
So while the returns on the court might be encouraging, at 32 and 34, respectively, both Hamilton and Billups they're on the downsides of their careers and are in the middle of hefty contracts. So it's not a real sustainable model for sucess. After this season, Hamilton has 2 years, $12.5 million and Billups has 1 year, $13 million so, unless the marquee free-agents of 2012 (Paul, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard) elect not to opt out, they won't be able to sign a guy of that ilk to compliment their new star anytime soon. Maybe they use one of their expiring contracts to take on another overpaid guy in a year but that's still a gamble. Otherwise, albeit with a more talented core, they're back to rebuilding again in 2013. But we guess that's just the going rate for a "superstar."
For Denver, they get to move on and free themselves of the Melo-drama and the luxury tax. Favors has huge upside and could end up being a stronger version of Chris Bosh. Morrow is a big-time shooter who doesn't do much else and Harris is a former All-Star who could be moved again for more assets to allow them to hand the team over to Ty Lawson. The picks give them something they'll need as they rebuild - hope.
As for the Pistons, they save money. That's it. Isn't the NBA great?
The Verdict
As we were taught in law school, the answer to every question is it depends. If the Nets think this is the only big move they have to make, then we're all going to be disappointed. But, if they're taking these extraordinary steps - gutting the roster, taking on bad contracts - to secure an elite scorer as the first step in a series of moves to create a championship-level team, we're on board. As with everything, we'll just have to wait and see.
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