Real Football - The Vick Question

"I swear, he never meant anything to me,

you were always the one Mike"

We all have perceptions about a player’s value; what he does and doesn’t do well and how his team performs when he plays. Perhaps the biggest sports story this week was the decision by the Philadelphia Eagles to name Michael “The Dogkiller” Vick their starting quarterback for the remainder of the season. A decision that left fans either scratching their heads or jumping for joy. What’s the proper reaction? We’ll get to that in a second.

First, beyond the obvious Vick-centric drama, Andy Reid’s choice is so polarizing because it goes completely against expectations. It seemed like not 10 minutes after they traded the best quarterback in franchise history, Donovan McNabb (to the division rival Washington Redskins, no less), the Eagles handed Kolb an extension and the starting nod. In so doing, Reid appeared to be betting his Philadelphia career on Kolb’s success. Add in Reid’s reputation for being one of the more stubborn coaches in the league and we weren’t at all surprised when Reid voiced his intention to stick with Kolb upon his return from injury, despite Vick’s impressive performance.
Reid, of course, showed he was too stubborn to even listen to himself (he led the charge of Eagle propaganda touting Kolb’s virtues during the offseason) and decided that he only needed to witness a single game against the Lions to know that Vick had surpassed Kolb. The lesson – trust Andy Reid’s QB commitments like you would his commitment to physical fitness (remember he also swore – cross his heart and hope to die – up until the day McNabb was unceremoniously dumped that he was his quarterback).

Now, on to what the proper reaction to all this is. The only way to answer that is to figure out what we can reasonably expect from Vick. That takes us back to perceptions of value. So, what comes to mind when you think of Mike Vick?

Hypothetical Person Invented For the Purposes of This Fictional Exchange: Dog killer?
Us: Of course, but what else?
HPIFPTFE: Ron Mexico?
Us: Funny, but not what we had in mind.
HPIFPTFE: Canine murderer?
Us: On the field, we’re talking about on the field.
HPIFPTFE: Are you sure it’s not dog killer? Cause I keep thinking dog killer.

Fine, let’s just all agree that Vick is a dog killer and a really shitty human being and nobody likes him (except for maybe cats). With that said, we don’t have to like him make an objective assessment of his performance on the field. When we think of Vick, we think of a dynamic athlete playing QB who, despite not having good passing numbers (completion %, passing touchdown), wins games for his team due to his rare athletic gifts. Since QBs are the most important players on the field and can exert so much influence on team performance, it makes sense to value wins above other stats. How does this perception compare with reality? Pretty well actually.

From 2002-2005, Vick played 4 full seasons as the Falcons starter (he started only 4 games in 2003 due to injury, playing well in his late year return) so we’ll use those seasons (stats courtesy of http://www.pro-football-reference.com/).

Year - Completion % - Passing Touchdowns (Total)/Interceptions - Record
2002 - 54.9% - 16/8 - 8-6-1
2004 - 56.4% - 14/12 - 11-4
2005 - 55.3% - 15/13 - 8-7
2006 - 52.6% - 20/13 - 7-9

The numbers seem to bear out our assessment that Vick has not been a historically good passer (his advance stats, which we don’t completely understand, also show him to be average or below average in most categories). His 54% completion percentage is well below average and his career 1.5:1 TD to INT ratio is far from special.

But he’s a winner, right, so those numbers don’t matter as much. Kinda. His career winning percentage is 57%. That’s not quite as high as we would have thought it would be. Compared to some of the big QBs in the league - Manning (68%), Brady (76%), Brees (56% overall, 60% with the Saints), Rivers (66%), Rodgers (53%), Roethlisberger (70%) – it’s clear that he’s not elite in that category. That he doesn’t match up with Manning or Brady is no surprise but he also lags behind Big Rapey Ben and Pissy Rivers. Rodgers has only started 2 seasons so his numbers might be invalid for this comparison and while we’re not exactly sure what to make of the similarity to Brees; we doubt anyone questions his credentials. So as a winner, Vick probably doesn’t belong in this group either. But, judging by Andy Reid’s glassy eyed, love-infused statements about Vick this week you have to doubt he thinks of Vick being anywhere below this level.

In fact, averaged out over a full season, his teams should go about 9-7. Not that impressive. If you’re the Eagles, would you feel good about crushing the confidence of your presumed franchise QB for a chance to go 9-7? No, no you wouldn't.

Is it possible that Vick has improved since we last saw him? Sure it is, but how much is reasonable? Vick’s performance this year has been pretty spectacular (if you can call anything that happened against the Lions spectacular) but his passing performance has been well above historical levels. To date, he’s completed 64% of his passes with 3 TDs and no picks. That’s a full 10% above his career average (and 8% above his career high). We have a hard time believing that two years away from football, a stint in jail, and a little coaching were all Vick needed to suddenly become a more accurate passer. Sure, if you have a QB who completes 2/3 of his passes and runs like Vick, he’s without a doubt a top 10 guy and we’re not sure there are more than 6 teams who wouldn’t take him. If Vick becomes that guy, Andy Reid is an absolute genius.

Still, we think it’s much more likely that Vick’s completion percentage returns to the low 50s and the Eagles become an average to slightly above-average team without much upside since Vick is unlikely to blossom as a passer at this point in his career and without such a change he’s not a championship-level QB. Because of this decision it’s unlikely that Kolb ever develops into one in an Eagle uniform either.

You can go back to scratching your heads now.