Baseball - Hot Stove Predictions That Are Already Wrong

If The Persnickety Project can be called any two things (besides tedious, of course) they have to be: (1) responsive; and (2) forward thinking. Our lone wolf commenter has been begging and pleading for additional baseball content since our brilliant pre-playoff piece on the historical significance of the Phillies Three-headed Pitching Monster (answer = none), so why not take a shot at making potentially disastrous predictions about what some of the big teams (by big teams we mean the ones we know most about/know our readers might be interested in) will do this off season and then look at some of the other Top 50 Free Agents (via Si.com).

As with most years, only a handful of teams figure to be active in free agency.  As usual, the Yankees and Red Sox lead the way but other teams like the Tigers (getting some significant money off their payroll),  Angels (coming off a surprising down season) and the White Sox (Kenny Williams is always aggressive) figure to be prominent members of the market.

As for our World Series Champion San Francisco Giants, they'll continue to not be big spenders, mostly content to resign guys like Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe.  Let's also not go crazy thinking that we might be seeing some sort of trend with a team of interchangeable role-players winning the title.  Sure, it's nice when a bunch of castoffs can all get just hot enough at the same time to score enough runs, but the Giants won on pitching (as it always is).  The two years prior saw the Yanks and Phils take home the trophy, not exactly teams filled with no-names.  So don't expect the year-in-year out contenders to start dumping their stars for the chance at more line-up flexibility.  What you should expect is that the team that gets the best pitching and most timely hitting in the month of October will win, not necessarily the best team.  You build a team to win the regular season so that you have a chance to get into the lottery that is the postseason.  Once you get there anything can happen, there's no big secret. 

New York Yankees

Like every year, the off-season discussion begins with the 500 pound gorilla of baseball, the New York Yankees. Before the season, as some were fawning over the acquisition of Javier Vazquez and lauding the depth of the Yankees pitching, we told anyone who would listen (mostly ourselves and The Mrs.) that their pitching would be a problem.  We couldn’t see how a team with their payroll could be comfortable with A.J. Burnett as their #2 starter and the still-developing Phil Hughes and a 127 year-old Andy Pettitte as key members of their playoff rotation. For once, we were right. Despite Pettite’s stellar season, the rotation didn’t come through against the Rangers and the Yanks limped off the field looking old and tired. The Evil Empire now finds itself faced with two major issues: (1) how to fortify their starting pitching; and (2) how to stop being so damn old. Those issues are embodied by the two players who will dominate all Yankee-related story lines this off season.

To fix their pitching, it comes down to one guy - Lee, Cliff. Their interest isn’t in doubt after almost giving up their top hitting prospect (catcher Jesus Montero) as part of an in season trade.  Neither is need, in fact, the Yanks seem almost desperate. Lee is the only top of the rotation starter available as a free agent (a guy like Zach Greinke could be had via trade, but there are doubts he’d handle New York well) meaning both he and his agent know the Yankees need him and desperation (or the perception thereof) is never a good thing when it comes to free agency. In addition to New York, Lee figures to chased by Anaheim, Detroit and, of course, the emotional pull of staying in Texas which will drive the price up but, ultimately, we don’t see how the Yankees get outbid. They never do. Additionally, Lee seems like a guy who wants to win and when he looks at it, he’ll realize that New York, a team that makes the playoffs virtually every year, gives him the best chance to do so. A chance to play with best buddy C.C. Sabathia doesn’t hurt either. Cashman will probably try to keep the deal in the 4-5 year range and will raise the yearly amount to get it done (particularly since Lee is going to be 33 next season) but we think, if push comes to shove, he goes to 6 years confident that Lee’s reliance on control and approach rather than power stuff will keep with age. If it comes to that, Yankees are the only ones who can absorb the final years of even the worst contracts and which they’ll gladly trade for another title or two. We expect something in the 5 year, $120m range and a 2011 playoff rotation of Sabathia, Lee, Pettitte (we think he comes back one a one year deal) and whoever is pitching better between Hughes/Burnett.

The Yankee’s second off season issue, the issue of age, is embodied by their long time captain Derek Jeter. First off, there's no way in hell (particularly with George watching from down there) that he doesn’t come back. The money is pretty much immaterial, no matter what they pay it’s not going to preclude them from doing anything else and they can’t afford to NOT sign him. They might as well just call it a special “fan relations” expense because they won’t be paying for production. The real question is what do they do with him? After a resurgent year in 2009, Jeter’s 2010 season looked like one that an aging SS would put together, hitting only .270 and making up one half of the slowest left side of an infield we’ve seen in awhile.  3-4 years at about $20m per seems reasonable with him staying at shortstop one more year (two max) before beginning to split time between the outfield and DH (they'd like to keep the spot open for guys like A-Rod and Posada so they can have some flexibility in the line-up and the field).  Though it will never happen we think switching Jeter and Cano is the ideal solution and keeps the Yanks from having to sacrifice either speed (Gardner) or power (Swisher) by having Jeter take an OF spot.

Resigning Jeter and having to keep a spot open for him somewhere else, really hampers the Yanks ability to get younger at any position of note. Absent a trade of Swisher (he’s really their only movable part) for a younger proven player, the sole source of youth has to come from Jesus Montero. Montero profiles as an elite middle-of-the-order bat (think Miguel Cabrera-esq) who is said to be ready to contribute now on offense (he hit .351 in the second half as the 20-year-old in AAA) but remains below-average defensively. The Yanks announced this morning that Posada would play primarily at DH this season so they're clearly making room for Montero on the roster.  He'll likely split time with Cervelli and, if his bat is as good as advertised, become part of the DH rotation with Posada and the rest of the oldies.

Boston Red Sox

When you talk Yankees, you have to talk Red Sox. Unlike past years, the two rivals won't likely going head-to-head on any key players this off season, but the Sox have decisions galore to make anyway. They already picked up the $13.5m option for Big Papi and while he might be overpaid this year, it allows them to keep him for another season and put off the painful decision to re-sign him to a longer-term deal or part ways for at least another year. Shrewd move by Theo.

Their next priority is to figure out what to do with their two big free agents – Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. Since Martinez qualifies as an unmitigated disaster behind the plate and they already have Youklis for one of the corner IF spots (though some question if he can still play third) and Papi as at least a ¾ time DH, they can only really resign one of them. We guess they re-sign V-Mart because he’s a legit switch-hitting middle of the order type guy and have him split time between 1st/C, let Beltre walk, and try to move Youk back across the diamond. They’ll also continue to chase guys like Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder and, if they land one, deal with the potential log-jam until they let Papi go next year. Bottom line, they’ll value flexibility over anything else.

The Sox will also go hard after an OF bat. Rumors have them chasing Werth because of his propensity to take pitches but we think Carl Crawford should be their guy. Rumors have him potentially heading to Anaheim but our guess is Boston doesn’t let him out of the division. He’s only 29 and, despite his reputation as a base stealer, has a varied skill set coming off a season where he hit 3rd for a team with the best record in the league and raised his homerun output to a career-high 19 this season. Add in the fact that he’s known as a tireless worker and a big time defender and he’ll be as worth the money as any player could be. Sox fans will love watching him slap double after double off the monster and ripping triples into Pesky corner while hitting second behind Pedroia and in front of Youk, V-Mart and Papi.

Also look for Papelbon’s name to be mentioned in trade rumors, particularly with NL teams, but stay put for his final year in Boston (before signing with the Yankees after Rivera retires next season).

Philadelphia Phillies

Continuing the theme of big teams with little flexibility, we come to the Phillies. They apparently maxed out their payroll in acquiring Halladay and Oswalt to the point where they’ll be forced to let Jayson Werth walk baring some unforeseen changes. Fortunately they have Domonic Brown waiting in the wings. The only problem with Brown, which isn’t really his problem but that of the team, is that he's another lefty in an already righty weak line-up. The Phils real problem is the rotting corpse wearing Raul Ibanez’s jersey in left field. Ideally, they’d move Ibanez, replace him with Brown and keep Werth around for a few more years. Not going to happen. They really can’t move his contract without eating most of it and if they do that, they wouldn’t have the money to pay Werth anyway. The best course of action might be to sign a discount righty OF bat ((Magglio Ordonez to a one-year “show me your healthy” deal?) to platoon and hope Ibanez gets off to a good start and becomes movable, making room for Brown in left.

New York Mets

It’s fun to pretend like the Mets are interesting or important. Too bad it’s only pretend. This off season will likely be a quiet one for the Mets, another big budget team with little to no positional flexibility just without the on field results of the others we just discussed.  They’re locked in at most of their positions and in dire need of pitching, the one thing the market doesn’t have. The bottom line for the Mets is hopefully the organizational realization that another off-season of spending isn’t going to fix things long term.

Still, they might compete this season. We’d expect Beltran to make a strong contract push with a bounce back season, Bay and Reyes to be better than awful/injured, Ike Davis to improve and Angel Pagan and David Wright to continue to be the lone bright spots.  In an attempt to appease the fans, they’ll probably spend some money on pitching. While Cliff Lee is above their pay grade, they’d be best served to resign R.A. Dickey and target a guy like Huroki Kuroda or even Javy Vazquez (he can pitch in the NL East) to pair with Santana (provided he's back quickly from season ending shoulder surgery), Pelfrey, and Neise or get really creative and look closely at Brandon Webb’s shoulder. What’s more likely is them shopping in the “Guys Certain to Disappoint” section for the likes of Jake Westbrook, Brad Penny, Rich Harden, and Jon Garland.  Either way, after Beltran walks next year and Santana is yet another year older, they're going to take a major step back and hopefully start a real rebuilding process that gets them to a sustainable level of success. We're not optimistic.

Now that we got those teams out of the way, let's look at some of the other big free agents and where we think they'll go.

Jayson Werth: (age) 31, (position) OF – (2010 stats) .296/.388/.532, 27 HRs, 85 RBIs, 13 SBs

We already made it clear we think there' sno way he's back in Philadelphia. Early reports link him to Boston (we're sure the Boston fans would just love another guy who seems like he doesn't care that much) but we think they should target the younger, more dynamic Crawford.  Werth is a tall and ridiculously athletic all around player who might not have yet realized his full power potential so, despite being 31, there's some upside here.  Our guess is that he ends up in Detroit. The Tigers have money to spend this off-season and if and when they get shut out on Lee and Crawford, they'll come at Werth with big offer. The Angels could also be in the mix if they get beat out for Crawford.   He's not a superstar but he'll be a productive member of someones line-up for the next 4 years, not a bad consolation prize.

Adrian Beltre: 31, 3B - .321/.365/.553, 28 HRs, 102 RBIs, 2 SBs

Beltre did what he does best, kill it in a walk year. He went to Boston, hit .320, clubbed 28 home runs and continued to play perhaps the best 3B in the majors and now hits the market as what seems like an old 31 (he's been around forever, right?).  We think he's better than he was in Seattle but not as good as he was last year, but he'll want to be paid for his peak performance. For that reason Boston let's him go and he ends up manning the hot corner for the the Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim.  The Halos come off a rare down year so they'll be looking hard to reload and can't feel comfortable with Brandon Wood continuing to suck at third.  Beltre would be a nice fit in the friendly atmosphere of SoCal and put together another 4 years of excellent defense and uneven offensive output (until his next walk year, of course.)

Adam Dunn: 31, 1B/DH - .260/.356/.536, 38 HRs, 103 RBIs, 0 SBs

Dunn does one thing well, hit, very well.  Dunn gets on base and hits for power at a prodigious rate but doesn't seem all that concerned with anything else, like defense or winning.  You know, those pesky things. We guess he stays put in Washington were he's comfortable, despite serious interest from teams like Detroit and the Chicagos, continues to do what he does without anyone paying too much attention. For Washington, resigning Dunn at least gives their fans a hint that they're going to try to compete until Harper and Strasburg get up/back to the bigs.

Paul Konerko: 35, 1B - .312/.393/.584, 39 HRs, 111 RBIs, 0 SBs

What do you make of a 35 year old coming off a .312, 39 hr, 111 rbi season? Damned if we know.  If you give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's not on the juice, you can't reasonably suspect he'll do it again next year. Of course, he'll be looking to be paid like he will and we suspect he’s going to be one of the most overvalued free agents on the market.  Despite interested from teams like Detroit, Anaheim and maybe even Arizona, he's played his entire career on the South Side and, though it's eminently boring to suggest it, he's likely to stay put for a few more years.

Jorge de la Rosa: 29, SP - 8-7, 4.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.4 K/9

This guy will win the award for worst contract this year.  He's got ridiculous stuff (we remember always trying to develop him in the old MVP Baseball games when he was a prospect with the Brewers), he’s only 29 so he doesn’t have a ton of mileage on him and he strikes a ton of guys out (8.4 K/ last season).  Of course he has had injury problems and only seemed to get things together last year in what was (surprise!) a contract push and even then he still pitched to a plus-4 ERA (in the year of the pitcher when about 1,000 guys were under 3).  The perfect recipe for contractual disaster.  Texas could be interested when they lose out on Lee but we think some borderline team looking to make a splash like the Cubs or White Sox or Astros overpays for him immediately regrets the deal, paying for potential that never quite pans out.

Rafael Soriano: 31, RP - 3-2, 1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 45 SVs

The Rays won the damn AL East and fans still didn’t come.  The result?  Lowering payroll this season and certainly letting Soriano walk in addition to Crawford and likely Pena.  It's kind of sad really but the team just can't compete financially and they went all-in this year and came up short.  Relief pitchers always seem to be the worst free agent values available since even the big names rarely stay consistent enough to justify the investment they require, e.g. K-Rod.  Still, somebody is going to pay Soriano a lot after a season were we was probably the best closer in the AL.  We guess he stays in the AL and but moves to either to the central time zone with White Sox (our guess is they’re done with Jenks and his fatness) or goes west to join an aggressive Angles squad that whiffed on Brian Fuentes.

Carlos Pena: 32, 1B - .196/.325/.407, 28 HRs, 84 RBIs, 5 SBs

The expectation is that Pena will follow those other guys out the door in Tampa but we think he could be the one guy who stays. He’s known as a good clubhouse presence and hits for power, two commodities in short supply in Baseball Siberia so he'd certainly be welcomed back. We’d love to think that his .196 average scares off teams to keeps the price low enough to allow Tampa to be competitive in the bidding (they'd have to trade off James Shields to clear some room) and Pena decides he wants to stay home in south Florida (until they move to Vegas, of course). If that’s just wishful thinking (which it probably is) look for the Cubs to get into the mix along with teams like the Tigers and the White Sox (if Konerko leaves).

Carl Pavano: 35, SP - 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.8 K/9

What’s more shocking that Carl Pavano makes a list of top free agents or that he’s 35 years old? It seems like just yesterday he was a 28-year old with an injured ass missing 4 seasons with the Yankees. No mystery here, for better or for worse, he’s staying in Minnesota.

Hiroki Kuroda: 36, SP - 11-13, 3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.3 K/9

As we said above, this is they guy for the Mets to target.  He’s the type of low risk, medium reward pitcher that a team hoping to contend needs.  He’d give them consistently solid starts with a chance to win most games out and is well suited to pitch in a big park like City Field.  

Derek Lee: 35, 1B - .260/347/.428, 19 HRs, 80 RBIs, 1 SB

SI.com suggests Lee for the Orioles and we agree.  Sure, he's nowhere near the MVP-contender he was in his one huge year but he’s still a good defensively with decent power (Camden Yards might even help that out a bit) and could be the type of professional Buck Showalter would want to add to his very young locker room.  It's corny but sometimes young teams benefit greatly from a veteran presence.  A good option on a short-term deal.

Brandon Webb: 31, SP – (career) 87-62, 3.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.3 K/9

No clue where Webb ends up but he’s one of the most fascinating guys on the market. He’s missed the better part of two seasons with somewhat mysterious shoulder problems but he’s still a former Cy Young winner with the potential to be dominant when healthy. Every team in the league should be looking very closely at his shoulder, knowing that they can get him on the cheap and, if he can get back, add an ace to their staff.  Even if he came back at 80% of what he used to be, he'd still be a winning pitcher.  Expect one of the contenders to take a shot and look to bring him into the rotation in June to serve as their mid-season acquisition.

Manny Ramirez: 38, OF/DH - .298/.409/.460, 9 HRs, 42 RBIs, 1 SB

ManRam might be an idiot, a clubhouse cancer and all that other crap but the guy can hit (he almost certainly has to stay in the AL since he’s an absolute disaster in the field).  After a up and down season, if he realizes he's going to have a take a major pay cut (if he doesn't he could end up playing in the Japanese league like AI in Tuirkey) he's the kind of guy a borderline team, like the A's, could scoop up and plug in the middle of their line-up.  Another option could be the Angles who could take a shot hoping he provides some of the line-up orotection they missed after letting Vlad go last year.

Hideki Matsui: 36, DH - .274/.361/.459, 21 HRs, 84 RBIs, 0 SBs

This is the guy the Rays should target. Matsui struggled at the start of his first season with Anaheim but really turned it on in the second half and finished with representative numbers. He’d be the perfect fit for a team looking to replace power and remains a middle of the order threat. We’ve always loved Harry and we think all the Yankee fans that go to Rays games would too.

Rich Harden: 29, SP, 5-5, 5.58 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 7.3 K/9

Finally, our boy Rich Harden.  He's only on here because he's a charter member of our “Man Crush All Stars” and we can't seem to let the memories of his dominant 1/2 seasons in Oakland go.  He's only 29 and when he’s healthy he can be dominant.  The catch is, of course, he’s never ever healthy.  His best fit would be an NL team that plays in a big ballpark (Mets anyone? Forget it, that might be too much for us to handle) and somebody with a smaller payroll, say the Dodgers or the Padres, will take a chance on his upside.  Chances are they'll end up puzzled and disappointed just like we are after every single fantasy season.