Real Baseball - Belated Reaction to the Giants World Series Victory – Finding Meaning Where There is None

Why is this man so sad?
He just realized all the recent stories aren't about him.

Since Brian Wilson - the crazy Beard Guy, not the crazy Beach Boy - recorded the final out of this year’s world series, we’ve been racking our brain for the meaning of such an improbable run.  We already knew how important pitching was in the postseason (even though the prognosticators seem to fall in love with great line-ups before every postseason), so we found ourselves distracted by the their quirky line-up of cast-offs like Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Cody Ross and World Series MVP Edgar Renteria (say that 15 times and you still won't believe it). It’s understandable, though, because how a team with those guys could ever hit enough to win a title, no matter how good their pitching is?  No matter how compelling a case they made for line-up flexibility, we doubted that teams with the resources and talent to find all-stars we suddenly going to go the route of collecting roll players. 

After several weeks of deep thought (by deep we mean occasional and fleeting), the conclusion we've come to is that San Fran’s triumph is the validation of an organizational philosophy that could continue to shape baseball for the next decade when another way of doing things become popular.  What is this philosophy? It’s all about the drafting, development and hording young power pitchers, primarily through the draft. Sounds simple, right, but not every team does it.

The Giants made their commitment clear, when coming off a 2007 season in which their offense was basically Barry Bonds and nobody else, they turned down an offer from the Toronto Blue Jays of Alex Rios (coming off an All-Star season where he hit .297, with 24 HRs and 85 RBIs) for a pitcher coming off a solid, but not spectacular rookie season (7-5, 4.00 ERA, 150ks). Obviously,the trade looks ridiculous in hindsight given that the pitcher, Tim Lincecum, went on to win the next two Cy Young awards but, its a trade that's been made 1,000 times in baseball history - the young unproven arm for the proven hitter.  So, why the change?

The Giants must have realized that, thanks to things like revenue sharing, smaller market teams starting locking up all the top young pitchers, from Johan Santana to guys like Felix Hernandez, Zach Greinke, &; Josh Johnson, pitchers were becoming the most prized commodity.  No longer would “big market” teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, etc. be able to treat their peers like farm teams and buy up their proven developed pitchers when they became free agents or just too expensive to retain.  We remember telling The Mrs. that smart teams should exclusively draft pitchers.  It hasn't quite gotten that far yet, but forward thinking teams like the Giants have come close, drafting Matt Cain, Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner in the first rounds of 2002, 2006, & 2007.

Teams that haven't gotten on board yet are left to shop the market of aging starters and second-tier guys.  With the notable exception of C.C. Sabathia two years ago, between arbitration and early extensions, when guys finally get to the open market they’re already 30 and at the tail end of their post-steroid era primes. This year, for example, the Yankees, who haven’t developed a front-line starter of their own since Andy Pettitte, have to decide whether to overpay 33 year-old guys like Cliff Lee to a contract guaranteed to be an albatross by the end or have to overpay 2nd tier pitchers like they did with A.J. Burnett.  The Yanks might be able to handle such things, but almost every other team will set their franchise back 5 years if they whiff on a $100 million player.  Giants fans remember Barry Zito, right?  Not to keep bringing up an irrelevant team like the Mets but when they acquired Johan Santana for his age 29 season and signed him to a massive extension until 2014 (age 35), everyone, including us, applauded the deal. Santana was the best pitcher in the game then but now that he’s pushing 32 with two straight seasons ended with surgery, things aren’t looking so hot. If he continues to struggle with injuries or witnesses the inevitable decline in performance, the Mets will be absolutely screwed, paying a 35 year-old pitcher $25 million a season. Even the Yanks, who don’t have the same financial constraints of mortal teams, couldn’t just go out and buy a replacement because there’s simply no supply.

This has the potential to become the new “Moneyball” (the idea of targeting market inefficiencies, not signing fat guys who walk).  Smart teams will draft as many power arms as possible, even when it comes at the detriment of your positional prospects, put the proper developmental structure in place (maybe even pushing them a little like the Rangers and Giants do, instead of the normal babying) and develop a surplus.  Once they come up with  a surplus, they'll be able to go out and get pretty much anyone they want in the trade market.  The Giants who were smart enough to hold onto Lincecum, draft and resign Matt Cain (before he was the total stud he is now) and pile up guys like Bumgarner and Sanchez, with more in the pipeline, the Red Sox have a nice group of youngens like Lester and Buchholtz, the Bluejays, the Rays could, if they wanted to, today deal any one of many minor league pitchers (not even major league proven guys) for a Top 5 hitter like Ryan Braun or a guy like Prince Fielder.  Plus, many of them can now afford to keep a guy like that because they locked up their pithcers to reasonable contracts early on and don't have to pay open market prices. 

Sure, lots of teams are going to screw this up and commit money to guys who go bust or get hurt, like Kerry Wood or Mark Prior, but the teams who figure out how to do it right are going to be the ones who consistently stay atop the standing, them and the Yankees of course.