Friday, April 29, 2011

Real Football - Quick Hit First Round Draft Grades

With a few exceptions, as we went through the picks we really like what the teams did. Now, it’s ridiculous to give out first round grades the day after, before any of these guys ever step on the field, but what else are we supposed to do, work?


NFL Draft Grades

1. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton, QB

Totally expected.  Newton has boom or bust potential but as long as he lands somewhere in the middle he should be worth the pick. Not a safe choice by any means but a bold one and while we love him, he makes us incredibly nervous.  Word is they plan to start him from day one, should be an interesting ride.

Grade: B+

2. Denver Broncos - Von Miller, OLB

This is the first quasi-head scratcher of the night. Miller is going to be great. So what’s the problem? Well, his best fit would have been in a 3-4 defense and that’s not what Denver plays.  Even if they use him at DE on 3rd downs, anytime he's in coverage and not getting after the QB, it’s a waste.  Dareus would have been the better fit as a penetrating DT to build around.  Again, Miller will be tremendous (we have no doubt after watching him cry for 5 minutes after being picked that he’s going to be good) but they could have done just a tad better for them. A little wasted value.

Grade: B++

3. Buffalo Bills - Marcell Dareus, DT

If the Bills and Broncos had swapped picks it would be A++’s all around.  But as it stands, the Bills got the better value.  Dareus is fast, strong and versatile and should step in immediately at end and be disruptive from Day 1 for the Bills.

Grade: A+

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, WR

Another completely defensible, but at the same time uninspiring, pick. Green will be great but do the Bengals really think his presence alone is going to convince Palmer to come back? We think not.  However, if they snag Dalton or Mallet at the top of the second round it becomes an A+.

Grade: A

5. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Peterson, CB

As we expected, the Cards passed on a QB and grabbed the best guy on many people’s boards. Peterson is going to be a playmaker wherever they put him on the field. Love this pick.

Grade: A+

6. Atlanta Falcons - Julio Jones, WR

It’s hard to crap on a team that goes up and gets a guy who is undoubtedly a stud but 5 (2 1’s, a 2 and 2 4’s) picks for Julio Jones? When you already have Roddy White? We’re not so sure about that. Maybe they think they’re going to be the next Colts and surely their offense will be scary (feel free to guess how to cover White, Jones and Gonzalez while stopping Michael Turner) but that’s a ton to give up.  Offense-based football teams don’t win a ton of Super Bowls and they had needs on defense that they’ll have to address in some other way.

Grade: B-

7. San Francisco 49ers - Aldon Smith, OLB/DE

The first of the reaches. Smith has a ton of upside as a pass-rusher but he’s raw, doesn’t really stop the run and Quinn, a less raw but equally intriguing guy, was sitting right there for the taking. He could be Osi or he could be Manny Lawson.  If we were the 49ers we would have preferred more of a sure thing here and this guy might not even see much of the field as a rookie. Dubious start of tenure for Harbaugh.

Grade: C

8. Tennessee Titans - Jake Locker, QB

Our first real stunner of the evening (the Falcons trade was surprising but Jones going 6 was expected), with Locker going not only 8th but also ahead of Gabbert. Locker is the type of player that displays such physical skill, poise and leadership that coaches fall in love ... and then get fired.  It’s not for lack of trying but at some point you have to produce. That’s not to say that Locker won't be a player but he's not close and you can't whiff in the Top 10.  Ideally you would have liked to see them trade back to get him but they probably didn’t think he’d get past Minnesota so they took their guy. We’ll give them the + for showing conviction.  We have a feeling Tennessee will be back here trying again next year. 

Grade: D+

9. Dallas Cowboys - Tyron Smith, OT

As much as we hate to say it, the Cowboys did well. They avoided the urge to get too cute and trade back or try to make a big splash. They just took the best available guy at a position of great need. Smith is an elite athletic prospect that needs polish but in tandem with Doug Free (which side each will play is TBD) they should be able to provide much better edge protection for Tony Romo.

Grade:  B+

10. Jacksonville Jaguars - Blaine Gabbert, QB

Well David, it was nice knowin you. The Jags not only picked your replacement but they traded up to do it. Gabbert has all the tools and, if properly developed, should add another dimension to the offense right about the time MJD hits the homestretch of his prime. If they can find additional help on defense, the Jags could be building a legit contender to the Colts divisional dominance.

Grade: A

11. Houston Texans - J.J. Watt, DE

The Texans needed to upgrade their defense and they succeeded in adding a starting front seven player. The question is, did they pick the right one? We had them taking Bowers and we still contend he’s going to be a stud but his knee concerns were obviously bigger than we thought.  Watt is totally solid and his bust potential is low but we would have gone with Cameron Jordan an equally solid but more explosive prospect.

Grade: B+

12. Minnesota Vikings - Christian Ponder, QB

So….Vikings fans. How’s it going? You guys feeling ok this morning. Remember those nightmares you were having about your team panicking and picking a quarterback because they felt they had to but Locker and Gabbert were both gone? Yeah, um, you weren’t dreaming. That really happened. There is absolutely nothing wrong with Christian Ponder as a player (He's accurate and should be a good west coast QB in the Hasselbeck mold), but as a value, he’s a disaster. They should have traded back or made a pick and tried to get back into the first or early second to get him. No excuse. Total panic move.

Grade: F

13. Detroit Lions - Nick Fairley, DT

Can you here the Eminem music now? Detroit is on the road to rebuilding and they’re fortunate enough to get a guy who two months ago was the #1 overall pick. People have questions about his size and motor but he seemed to play hard last year and size won’t be such an issue when he’s lined up next to Suh and impossible to double team. They had bigger needs on defense but getting an elite guy is hard to pass up.  The game is won in the trenches and Detroit will have an advantage in 95% of the games it plays. If they can find some secondary and offensive line help in the other rounds, a wild card challenge could be coming up shortly.

Grade: A+

14. St. Louis Rams - Robert Quinn, DE

Another team that fate shined upon. After getting Bradford at #1 last year and almost making the playoffs, St. Louis sees a Top 7 player fall all the way to 14. In fact, we have no doubt that if Quinn had played last year he would have gone Top 5. The Rams had bigger needs but Spags has had a ton of success rotating defensive lineman and could use Quinn much like he did with Justin Tuck. We love, love, love this pick.

Grade: A+

15. Miami Dolphins - Mike Pouncey, C/G

Interior lineman. Ho hum. You can’t win without them but you can’t get excited for them.  Miami was a bit in shambles on offense last season and adding protection can never hurt but a quarterback or Mark Ingram would have made things more intriguing. Pouncey is more of a guard than a center since he can’t seem to execute a shotgun snap which is rather important for the position but he'll be a starting player for as long as he's there.

Grade: B(oring)+

16. Washington Redskins - Ryan Kerrigan, DE

It’s puzzling why the Skins would trade out of the Top 10, pass on a quarterback and miss out on the elite 3-4 pass-rushing talent. A second round pick is valuable, we guess. Kerrigan is a solid player but he’ll be asked to line up at OLB in the 3-4 (his best position would have been 4-3 DE) which will highlight some of his athletic deficiencies. That said, the Skins will love that he’s the anti-Haynesworth an intense, hard-working and leader. They might have been better off taking a true 3-4 end like Jordan, Wilkerson or Clayborn.  Poor fit.

Grade: B

17. New England Patriots - Nate Solder, T

Well, what do you know, the Pats made a pick. We weren’t sold on Solder before the draft but now that he’s on the Pats we have no doubt he’s going to be, at the very least, a Pro Bowl alternate. The dude is huge and insanely athletic and the Pats will get the most of his immense potential. The only thing that keeps them from an A+ is their needs on defense that could have been addressed with guys like Bowers, Wilkerson or Jordan.

Grade: A

18. San Diego Chargers - Corey Liuget, DT

Liuget is known for his non-stop motor (2 Legit to Quit, perhaps?) and the Chargers apparently plan to put that motor at end in their 3-4 scheme. Makes sense to us. He should be able to provide some penetration and play-making from whatever spot he occupies and be a solid, if unspectacular, player.

Grade: B+

19. New York Giants - Prince Amukamara, CB

From what we’ve read the Giants had their hearts set on Solder but after the Pats snagged him a few picks earlier they had to audible. And to further the unnecessary metaphor, that audible was a home run. Sure they had bigger needs but Amukamara represented Top 10 value in this draft and a team can never have too many good corners. The Giants defensive backfield should be strength for the team and Prince’s size/speed combo should help him deal with the guys like Jackson, Maclin, Austin and Bryant 4 times a year and allow the team to ramp up their pass-rush even further. Game. Blouses.

Grade: A+

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Clayborn, DE

Clayborn is a big, powerful end who can get after the quarterback and should fit nicely in the Bucs Cover 2 scheme and give them some of the pass rush they lacked last year. Injury concerns pushed him down a bit but he’s a talent who plays hard all the time. Not much to say, just a very solid pick.

Grade: B+

21. Cleveland Browns - Phil Taylor, DT

Despite their need for Julio Jones, you can’t fault the Browns for taking the Falcon's “Godfather Offer” and moving back.  But spending some of that capital to move back up (from 27) for Taylor is questionable. He’s a huge nose tackle and guys like that who can still move are rare but he’s not like he’s the next Haloti Nata. He'll be solid, stuff the run, stack blockers, create a little bit of pressure and should help solidify the Browns line as they transition back to the 4-3.

Grade: B+

22. Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Castonzo, T

Another intersection of fit and need with Castonzo, a player ready to step in a play LT and solidify the protection of Peyton’s blind size. He’s experienced in pass protection in a pro-style offense from B.C. and, while he needs to get stronger, the athleticism (particularly in an offense that loves the stretch play) and footwork are ready to go.

Grade: A

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Danny Watkins, G

We love how the Eagles just antagonize their fans. With everyone clamoring for Bowers, they took the most opposite guy they could find. Instead of a young, elite talent to help an atrocious defense, they took a 27 year old second round guard. Fantastic. Thanks you Andy Reid. Watkins will be a good player but when you’re 6 years older than everyone else, it’s hard to get excited about things like maturity and strength. He could play some RT but his ideal spot is a guard.

Grade: C

24. New Orleans Saints - Cameron Jordan, DE

We got this one half right – the first name. Many people expected Jordan to be a draft day mover but most thought it would be the other way - up. For the Saints to get him at 24 is an absolute steal. He’s a strong end that can get after the quarterback while still stuffing the run. He should be a great piece to help rebuild the defense.

Grade: A+

25. Seattle Seahawks - James Carpenter, G/T

Who? Exactly. What Carpenter has going for him is that he started 2 years at LT for Alabama. What he has against him is the fact that those things don’t really matter and most felt he was best suited for guard. In fairness, we heard at least one scout say they thought he was the best tackle in the draft. So we’ll give the Hawks the benefit of the doubt to and try to see him as a versatile player who should help settle a shaky line. But with higher rated guys like Carimi and Sherrod at the same position and defenders like Wilkerson, Heyward and Bowers available we can’t give them anything more than a C.

Grade: C

26. Kansas City Chiefs - Jonathan Baldwin, WR

Ugh. The Chefs pass on all kinds of line talent that they really need to get a receiver to compliment Bowe. Hard to get excited about that. Yeah it was a need and sure Baldwin is a bit, physically imposing player but it just seems like the wrong move. For one, despite all his physical skills, Baldwin has had attitude problems, is really unpolished and seems more like a 2nd round guy. Additionally, they have needs at tackle, linebacker and along the d-line where better prospects were available. He’ll help the offense but they wasted a ton of value here.

Grade: D

27. Baltimore Ravens - Jimmy Smith, CB

Baltimore is another team that benefits greatly from the mistakes of the teams picking ahead of them. Despite a weird incident in which the Ravens thought they had a trade done, only to watch the clock run out on their pick and K.C. jump them in line, they still got the guy they were targeting. Smith is a supreme talent with character issues but if he’s going to be good his best chance is with guys like Ray Lewis giving him the stink eye when he steps out of line. He’ll be a great fit as a big, physical do-everything corner the Ravens sorely lack.

Grade: A

28. New Orleans Saints - Mark Ingram, RB

We’ve made no secret of the fact that we’re big fans of Ingram and Saints surrendering next year’s #1 pick to the Pats (who else?) seems like a fair price. And while you could argue that he’s not appreciably better than the other available running backs, that’s mostly because his instinctive style just isn’t flashy. Despite the big name, he might be underrated. He should be a perfect fit for the Saints offense and give them a featured back as they move on from Reggie and Pierre.

Grade: A

29. Chicago Bears - Gabe Carimi, T

We rarely like anything the Bears do, particularly in the draft. But Carimi might be the exception. While the Bears really needed a left tackle and Carimi, due to his lack of speed and agility, is probably best suited for the other side. Still, any help up front is welcome. Solid pick.

Grade: B

30. New York Jets - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT

We’re huge fans of Wilkerson and, as we’ve said before, think he has a ton of upside. He’s an athletic, penetrating lineman who should fit right in as a 3-4 DE for an aggressive Jets defense and should be able to boost the pass-rush from the inside. Great value. Great pick.

Grade: A

31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Cameron Heyward, DE

Heyward is an imposing physical specimen but sometimes the production doesn’t match the package. Still, he’s strong and plays hard, values the Steelers place a premium on. They had bigger needs on the O-line and in the secondary but adding some youth to an aging defensive line is always a good idea. Hard to argue with the Steelers in the draft.

Grade: B+

32. Green Bay Packers - Derek Sherrod, T

The Pack could have grabbed another pass-rusher here but instead opted to solidify their offensive line for the next 8 years by adding a solid tackle to team up with Bryan Bulaga and keep their franchise, aka Aaron Rodgers, safe. Again, hard to argue with success.

Grade: B+

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