Tuesday, April 26, 2011

The Persnickety Project's 2011 NFL Mock Draft 3.0 - Part 1

It's almost that time people.  The NFL Draft is a mere two days away.  What used to be one of our favorite wasted weekends is now a three-day extravaganza that includes a prime-time airing of the first round on Thursday.  When it comes to symptoms of sports insanity, there really is nothing comparable to sitting through the 15 minute intervals between picks during the NFL Draft and not getting bored.  Unless, of course, you spend hours "scouting" to put together a sure to be completely wrong mock draft (or 3).  Well, that's what we do and we're back with the final, definitive taken - The Persnickety Project's NFL Mock Draft 3.0 - Part 1 (we're doing it in 3 parts due the country's rapidly declining attention span).  The format remains the same but we've added a new "Reminds Us Of" feature to give everyone a (hopefully) useful comparison to a better known player.

Here we go:  Picks 1-10.

1. Carolina Panthers, 2-14


Team Needs: WR, DE, DT, CB, OLB, G, C, All new players, Jerry Richardson to stop being such a douche

Cam Newton QB, Auburn, 6'5", 248 lbs

We've said from Day 1 that Newton would eventually find himself at the top of this draft due to his tremendous upside potential, start power, and the fact that the NFL is a quarterback league that drafts risky quarterbacks over much safer, better players. Fortunately time has proven us right. Unfortunately, we didn't have the balls to step out and make him our #1 back in December. Either way, despite his sometimes clumsy handling of the draft process in which he appeared arrogant and unprepared at times, Newton looks like the odds-on favorite to become the face of a floundering Carolina franchise. Newton’s college production was unparalleled and his blend of size, speed, arm strength and play making ability is truly unique but he needs to improve in other areas like accuracy. He could be a huge bust or revolutionize the position. Our money is on somewhere in between and if that happens, Carolina will be happy it made this bold move.

Reminds Us Of: A faster Daunte Culpepper

2. Denver Broncos, 4-12

Team Needs: LB, DT, OLB, The resurrection of John Elway, For their best defensive player to not be a 32-year old cornerback

Marcell Dareus DE/DT Alabama, 6'2", 319 lbs

New coach John Fox goes from Carolina to Denver and finds a team with lots of the same problems, a worse draft pick and a president who sits down the hall in an office bigger than his. Fox may be the coach but the team is now, and again, Elway’s. With a former quarterback running the show you might expect the Broncos to go in that direction up this high but with the investment they’ve made in Tebow and the Orton safety net, they’ll focus on fixing the defense and Dareus, a tackle who moves like an end, is an excellent start. Despite less impressive stats, Dareus has eclipsed former projected top pick Nick Fairley on the basis of his remarkable physical gifts (few 320 lb men are as quick and explosive) and versatility (his ability to play all over the line will be an asset during the painful transition from the 3-4 to 4-4 front). With his scary combination of size and strength and ability to disrupt the pocket, he will be an absolute star if he learns to play hard consistently.

Reminds Us Of: Richard Seymour/Kevin Williams

3. Buffalo Bills, 4-12

Team Needs: QB, OT, DE, OLB, SS, Hope, Passports

Von Miller, OLB/DE, Texas A&M, 6'3", 240 lbs

The Bills are in a tough spot. While they could use a quarterback, the relative emergence of Ryan Fitzpatrick as a serviceable NFL quarterback and Chan Gailey being unlikely to want to groom a guy like Gabbert for his successor, means they’ll likely focus on another area that can lead to immediate, drastic improvement – the pass rush and, when it comes to rushing the passer, Miller is a savant. He tore up the Big 12 (21.5 TFL and 17 sacks). Tore up the Senior Bowl and tore up the Combine. Now, with his stock cresting, he seems poised to go #3 and reinvigorate the Buffalo defense with his speed, explosiveness and fluidity. While he played DE in college, most scouts think he possess all the physical skills necessary to becomes a true, every down, playmaking linebacker. He’s not without risk, however, it’s always dicey to pick a player this high and ask him to switch positions. Just ask Vernon Gholston.

Reminds Us Of: Clay Matthews/James Harrison

4. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-12

Team Needs: QB, RB, DE, T, S, MLB, New ownership, To love Carson Palmer and set him free

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri, 6'5", 240 lbs

Don’t take this pick as evidence that we no longer think the Bengals are delusional. In fact, this pick is just further evidence of their organizational insanity. In a family run organization, loyalty has to be paramount and ultimately Mike Brown will see Palmer’s gambit as a sign of disloyalty and cut ties. That would open the door for Gabbert, who many believe is the best passer available, to join the a team that’s never shied away from drafting quarterbacks as the first step toward rebuilding (Klingler, Smith, Palmer). While he remains relatively unknown, Gabbert has the prototypical NFL quarterback skills set of size, athleticism, arm strength, accuracy and leadership. His pedestrian college numbers (less productive at Mizzou than NFL backup Chase Daniels) belie his big talent and he could develop into a solid-to-excellent quarterback.

Reminds Us Of: Matt Schaub

5. Arizona Cardinals 5-11

Team Needs: QB, CB, OLB, T, G, A ruffie to forget the Derek Anderson era, To send Kurt Warner a piece of toast with an image of some religious thing to convince him it's his divine providence to play one more season

Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU, 6'1", 211 lbs

With the top two quarterbacks gone (we’ve long contended is not the move for a coach on the hot seat anyway) and none of the offensive tackles representing Top 5 value, defense becomes the priority and the decision comes down to value (Peterson) and need (Quinn). For the smart teams, value usually wins out so we’ll give the Cards the (unearned?) benefit of the doubt. Getting Peterson, the top cornerback and perhaps the top player overall, would be a coup. In the era of passing offenses, having a shut down corner in the mold of Revis or Asomugha is a valuable weapon and Peterson has that type of potential. He possesses a ridiculous blend of size and speed (210+ lbs, 4.3 40) and profiles as a big corner in the Woodson (Charles or Rod) mold. Add in his elite return ability and comparatively low downside (if for some reason he didn’t work out at corner he could easily slide over and become a game changing safety) and he’s a lock to be a game-changer.

Reminds Us Of: Charles Woodson/Rod Woodson

6. Cleveland Browns, 5-11

Team Needs: WR, T, LB, DE, Something else for people of Cleveland to do, A chaperon for the new 15-year old coach

A.J. Green, WR, Georgia, 6'4", 208 lbs

This is the biggest no brainer in the history of earth. No team is in more need of a top WR than the Browns and Green, a big, fast player with hands and route running skills to match is, despite the uninspiring Combine performance, the premier prospect as the position. He could form a potent tandem with the promising Colt McCoy as the Browns try desperately to move back to relevance. This pick could end up being reminiscent of the Vikes getting Adrian Peterson when Green bursts onto the scene next year as a big-time rookie playmaker.

Reminds Us Of: Larry Fitzgerald

7. San Francisco 49ers, 6-10

Team Needs: QB, WR, QB, DT, QB, LB, QB, CB, QB, Winners, A glass of milk for Frank Gore and his broken hip

Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina, 6'4", 254 lbs

QB play cost Mike Singletary his job and got Jim Harbaugh his, so the Niners would love for Gabbert or Newton to fall to them but, absent a surprise on that front, we’d expect them to go with the best defensive player available for their scheme. While Fairley is probably best player available, he’s such a poor fit for the 3-4 that Quinn, a hybrid OLB/DE who can play outside in the 3-4, is the pick. Despite missing his entire senior season due to NCAA infractions, Quinn is a physical freak and fearsome pass rusher with a combination of speed and size that should make him an instant impact player as a situational pass rusher for the anemic San Fran defense. Also, NCAA issues notwithstanding, Quinn is considered a high-character player and exceptionally hard-worker (he worked his way back from a brain tumor his senior year in high school) and has all the tools to be dominant.

Reminds Us Of: DeMarcus Ware

8. Tennessee Titans, 6-10

Team Needs: QB, G, LB, CB, An owner who doesn't throw his coach under the bus and then pretend he didn't, For their new coach to grow a mustache and beard so fans think Jeff Fisher never left

Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn, 6'4", 299 lbs

This is probably the best case scenario for the team trying to replace its long time coach and sometime quarterback. Due to concerns about his character and (lack of) weight, Fairely went from the odds-on #1 pick to a player trying to stay in the Top 10. But he can’t fall any further than this. We’ll go on record as saying the concerns about his weight being too low are completely overblown and while the character concerns shouldn’t be ignored, neither should a season that saw Fairely dominate from start to finish with 11 sacks, a Lombardi Award and a stellar performance in the National Championship Game (5 tackles 3 for a loss and a forced fumble). He can dominate with both power and quickness against either the pass or the run and, if he can put his maturity and work ethic issues behind him, we’ll look back at his fall much like we do with the great Warren Sapp.

Reminds Us Of: Warren Sapp

9. Dallas Cowboys, 6-10

Team Needs: T, G, DE, S, CB, To go away, To not sell tickets for seats that don't exist

Tyron Smith, T, USC, 6'5", 291 lbs

After an wonderfully, awful season, Dallas finds itself picking in the Top 10 after watching NFC-rival Green Bay hoist the Lombardi Trophy in their own building. Boy, doesn't that suck. Tackle is a huge area of need and Smith, another guy we long expected to work his way up the draft board but lacked the fortitude to commit to, has solidified his value. While he’s a bit undersized at this point and played right tackle in college, Smith is an elite athlete playing tackle. The catch, of course, is that at this point, Smith is mostly just that but with passing skills honed in USC’s pass-heavy, pro-style offense, he has the tools to develop into a true blindside protector. Dallas has the luxury of playing Doug Free at left tackle initially while plugging Smith in on the right side and allowing him to develop.

Reminds Us Of: D’Brickashaw Ferguson

10. Washington Redskins, 6-10

Team Needs: QB, RB, WR, T, G, DE, DT, CB, LB, A Haynesworth/McNabb enema, Some sunscreen for old Stroke Face

Julio Jones, WR, Alabama, 6'4", 211 lbs

This is the first big swing pick of the draft. The Skins roster is stocked with one thing – holes – and they could go so many different directions here. We’d long assumed that Shanahan would do what Shanahan does and develop a hard man-crush and snag a QB here. And we still wouldn’t be shocked to see Locker go to D.C. (either here or through a trade) but Jones, who also fills a big need, is just too exciting a prospect to pass up. Despite durability issues (though he didn’t miss many games, he was often banged up), Jones has his elite potential as a former top overall recruit at his position with great size, excellent timed speed (4.39 at the Combine, though he doesn’t play that fast) and good hands. While not quite on the level of Green in terms of pass-catching ability, Jones is more of a competitive blocker (a key to the Shanahan run game) and more physical player.

Reminds Us Of: Anquan Boldin in Brandon Marshall’s body

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