To prove that we're not totally full of crap when we say we love feedback from our reader, we decided to take a request:
Subject: How about a post on the best quarterbacks coming out in the draft
I was talking with some people about who they think are the best QBs and they think the media is biased. What do you think? Why do you think that the media collectively views Andrew Luck as a better QB than Cam Newton? I would be curious to hear the projects thoughts on this one.
We currently working on the first draft of our 2010 NFL Mock Draft (unfortunately we had to start over after Luck announced he was going back to Stanford) but since the quarterbacks are generally the biggest stories on draft day we figured a separate post was in order. Today, we'll do a rundown of the guys likely to go in the first round. With teams like the Panthers, Bills, Bengals, Cardinals, 49ers, Titans, Redskins, Vikings and Dolphins all potentially in the market for QBs things could get very interesting.
Finding a Quarterback
We're looking at first rounders because that seems like a good place to find them if you want to be a playoff team. Don't believe us?
Check out the passers for our 2010 playoff participants and how they ended up on their teams (we refuse to acknowledge the Seahawks as a playoff team):
New York Jets - Mark Sanchez (1st round)
Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning (1st overall)
Kansas City Chiefs - Matt Cassel (picked in 7th round by New England Patriots, acquired by Chiefs with Mike Vrabel for 2nd round draft pick, signed to a 6-year, $63 million contract)
Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco (1st round)
Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger (1st round)
New England Patriots - Tom Brady (6th round - biggest steal in draft history)
New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees (1st pick in 2nd round by San Diego Chargers, signed as free agent after a serious shoulder injury. Rep and the Chargers decision to replace him with the 4th overall pick, Phillip Rivers)
Philadelphia Eagles - The Dogkiller - (1st overall by the Atlanta Falcons. You may have heard his story)
Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers (1st round - picked despite the presence of Brett Favre)
Chicago Bears - Jay Cutler (1st round, Denver Broncos. Acquired for Kyle Orton and first-round picks in 2009 (18th overall) and 2010, along with a third-round pick (84th overall) in 2009.)
Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan (1st round)
As you can see, while you don't have to be a first round pick it does help (though success is far from guaranteed) and if you're not going to get your guy through the trade you'd better be prepared to pay in both picks and contract extensions to get one. Even the awful Seahawks had to use draft picks to aquire their quarterbacks (they swapped 2nd and 3rd round picks with San Diego to get Whitehurst, a former 3rd round pick who was a career-long back-up and long ago they got Hasselbeck (a former 6th rounder and back-up) for a swap of 1st rounders and a 3rd.)
Bias?
In a word: no. Given all the money and jobs on the line when they turn in that little card to the commissioner, the decision makers can't afford to be biased against anything but players who they think can't make the transition from college to pro football and life. They'd pick a guy who killed their grandmother if they knew he'd throw 30 TDs and win them two rings.
Even quarterbacks picked in the first round isn't without risks (the ratio of hits to busts is probably around 50/50). Sure, if you pick the right one (say, Peyton Manning) you end up with a string of playoff berths and a Super Bowl trophy but if you miss, you're the Cincinnati Bengals. You waste absurd amounts of money on busts like Dave Klingler and Akili Smith and then try to correct your mistake by spending pick after pick until you find the right guy (Carson Palmer, at least for a few years) and never build up the roster to properly surround your leader. Oh yeah and if you're the GM who screws up the pick you get fired. (Do you think Bill Polian, a Hall-of-Fame GM, would still be running the Colts if he drafted Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning?) So, in an effort to protect their jobs, NFL talent evaluators will look for anything and everything - character, size, injuries, playing style, collegiate scheme - that could hinder a guy's ability to be a successful pro. It's almost like general managers are trying to find reason NOT to draft a guy. They'd rather pass on a good one then pick a bad one.
Evaluating Quarterbacks
Part of what makes the evaluation so tricky is that college and pro football are essentially two different sports. We've heard it said that in college everyone is open where in the pros nobody is. College is all about wide-open spread offenses, less condensed talent and uneven competition. Oftentimes, the quarterback is the best athlete on the field and can simply dominate the competition on pure physical talent. In the NFL is doesn't work that way. Quarterbacks face defenses filled with guys who were all best guy on their college team and coached by sociopaths who spend 100 hours a week trying to figure out how to stop them. Maybe, Cam Newton might be able to run all over Ol Miss 25 times but if he tries that crap against Ol Ray Lewis he's going to die.
So in making their evaluations, NFL teams tend to gravitate towards guys who already have experience in "pro-style systems:, i.e. guys who take snaps from under center, work play action, etc, as opposed to guys who come from the spread. It's easier to project a guy to be good on the pro-level when you've seen him do the things he'll need to do there while in college. That's how a comparatively less spectacular guy like Andrew Luck could be considered the hands-down #1 pick over Cam Newton, the author of perhaps the most dominant single season a college football player has ever had. Never underestimate the lack of imagination possessed by teams.
Similarly, NFL teams don't look at the skills that make a college player dominant but at the ones they think translate to the pro game - height, arm strength, accuracy, football intelligence, the ability to operate within the pocket and, hopefully, leadership. We tend to think height and arm strength are kind of overrated while teams don't consider a guys accuracy and, especially, leadership quite enough. If a guy can't lead a bunch of enthusiastic college kids how is he going to win over a bunch of dudes who's paychecks are on the line. Teams that don't put enough focus on this one end up with Jeff George and Matt Leinart and Vince Young.
Sometimes skills that extremely effective in college, like running ability, are considered a detriment. Teams will often look a guy who ran alot in college and see a player who won't stay in the pocket and and could therefore subject heir $100 million dollar investment to unnecessary punishment and ultimately injury. Nobody wants to go bowling with their Faberge egg.
Now that we've set the evaluation table, we'll take a look at the guys likely to be entrusted with NFL teams in the near future.
The Guys
Andrew Luck
When we started writing this Luck was the consensus, lock-down, no-brainer and every other adjective you could think of #1 pick in the draft. He's been described as the best, most well-rounded quarterback prospect since John Elway. Today, he announced he was staying at Stanford and forgoing the 2010 draft. Apparently, he really loves school though if you're looking for an ulterior motive you can just look at where he would have gone - Carolina. Can't say we blame him for wanting to take a chance on coming up with someplace better next season.
Still, in anticipation of next year, we'll talk a little about what makes him so special in the eyes of NFL evaluators. He's gets high grades in all the important categories: (1) physical traits - excellent size (6'4"), mobility, arm strength, accuracy, (2) production - 32 touchdowns and a ridiculous 71% completion percentage, (3) character - every sportswriter in America seems to have a man-crush ) and (4) he comes from a pro-style offense. He's as close to can't miss as you get and probably, without exaggeration, the best prospect since Peyton. Even for someone as negative as us, we have a hard time coming up with things to pick on. He kinda has big teeth?
Best Case NFL Comp - Peyton Manning
Realistic NFL Comp - Aaron Rodgers
Cam Newton
We'll say this right off the bat - we love Cam Newton. We love his NFL potential and if we had to pick one quarterback in this draft now that Luck is out we'd go with Newton. We just got through a lengthy discussion of how different college and pro football are but Newton's absolute dominance this season can't be completely overlooked. Maybe it's not predictive but it does show that he's not just a guy with a ton of talent but one that can produce. Physically, he's a freak. Not only is he huge (6'6", 250) but he's also extremely fast and strong. He's got the arm strength and, we think, underrated accuracy. Plus, he just makes plays and his teammates seem to respond to him as their leader. He reminds us of a faster Daunte Culpepper who - before his gruesome knee injury - played at an MVP level for the Vikings.
He's not without his issues though. Lots of people think his accuracy isn't where it needs to be and playing in Auburn's system didn't give him a chance to prove his aptitude in a pro-style offense. Finally, there's the character thing. We're not talking about all the stuff about his dad trying to sell his services (we could really care less about that) put he has been accused of cheating and stealing - teams won't overlook that stuff easily.
We think he'll go quite high in the draft (we think he could end up in the mix for #1 come April) in part because of the relative success guys like Vick and Tebow had this year (Newton doesn't have Vick's short area quickness but he is fast while Tebow-like size to protect him from getting killed). Teams are looking for the guy who can throw from the pocket while making plays outside it when necessary while not getting injured. Those guys are few and far between and Newton just might be the real thing. Teams won't pass for long.
Best-Case NFL Comp - Vick-bow, a truly unique quarterback
Realistic NFL Comp - Daunte Culpepper, 2009 Vince Young at worst
Blaine Gabbert
We'll admit, we haven't seen Gabbert play so we can only go on what we've read and heard. Right now he seems to be very popular with evaluators because he possesses lots of the checklist qualities they look for. Size? 6''5", 240. Check. Arm strength? Check. Accuracy? Check. Mobility? Good enough. Leadership? He's a saint. He's like Andrew Luck-lite. He only loses points for coming from a spread system and occasionally forcing the ball into coverage. His numbers don't jump out at you (16 TDs, 9 INTs, 63% completion) but everyone seems to agree he's a solid Top 5-10 guy.
Best-Case NFL Comp - Matt Hasselbeck (before he totally sucked), Phil Simms
Realistic NFL Comp - Jake Delhomme (before he totally sucked)
Jake Locker
Locker is an interesting player. He would have challenged Sam Bradford as the #1 overall pick last season , and seemed like he'd be this year's top pick before going to Washington for his senior year and having a disastrous season. He was beat up repeatedly behind a weak offensive line, came up small against top opponents (4-20, 71 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs and 5/16 for 56 yards in two games against Nebraska) and generally lost himself a ton of money. Now he's not even guaranteed to go before the 2nd round.
Before this season everyone seemed to want him to be the next John Elway, citing his elite speed, arm strength and toughness while blaming his team for his utter lack of production. Despite playing for noted passing scheme guru and former USC assistant Steve Sarkisian, even in his best season he only completed 58% of his passes while throwing 21 TDs and 11 INTs. Those certainly aren't the kind of numbers you'd expect from a high first round pick or the next John Elway. Still, it only takes one team to fall in love and we think his physical attributes and toughness will push him into the first 15 picks on draft day.
Best Case NFL Comp - Steve McNair/Donovan McNabb/Ben Roethlisberger
Realistic NFL Comp - David Garrard
Ryan Mallett
The Man with the Golden Arm. Mallett's ability to throw the football makes NFL teams absolutely drool. He might have the strongest arm of any football player in the world right now. He's also got the size (6'7"), the ability and demeanor to push the ball down field, played in a pro-style system at Louisville, had great production (32 Tds, 65% completion) and is reported to be a fierce competitor (though from what we've seen he might get a little too fired up at times). That should be enough to get him drafted in the high to mid first round. He's got two main flaws, however. One is accuracy, particularly on short throws. From what we've seen he fires a few too many passes at his receivers feet. The second downside for him is he's an absolute statue in the pocket. He just doesn't move, it's like he's wearing cement shoes. Guys who do that are sitting ducks for NFL caliber pass rushers. Arm strength doesn't matter so much when you're getting hit.
Best Case NFL Comp: Late career Dan Marino that couldn't move/Drew Bledsoe
Realistic NFL Comp: Kerry Collins
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