Do we need to get to know this guy?
1. Arian Foster is a god among mere mortals.
Arian Foster did his best Adrian Peterson/Chris Johnson impression (Adrian Fosterson? Maybe? Chrisian Johnster? Certainly not.) on Sunday by running roughshod over Superbowl-loser Indianapolis Colts to the tune of 231 yards and 3 TDs. The natural reaction to such a performance is for everyone to immediately become members of the Arian Nation, call him a top 10 back and start him through thick and thin. Should we? I'm not buying, yet.
Arian Foster did his best Adrian Peterson/Chris Johnson impression (Adrian Fosterson? Maybe? Chrisian Johnster? Certainly not.) on Sunday by running roughshod over Superbowl-loser Indianapolis Colts to the tune of 231 yards and 3 TDs. The natural reaction to such a performance is for everyone to immediately become members of the Arian Nation, call him a top 10 back and start him through thick and thin. Should we? I'm not buying, yet.
Anyone who drafted him should certainly puff out their chests with pride and command us to bow to their fantasy knowledge but there is a reason he scored all those points from many a fantasy bench. That reason, of course, is that nobody (not even his team) trusted him and like any relationship, a fantasy player relationship is about trust, and one game does not a trusting relationship make. Sure he had a few nice games at the end of last season but he was undrafted (partly due to fumbling problems which have a tendency to linger, right Tiki?) and, more importantly, was supposed to be supplanted by Ben Tate (the Texans' second round draft pick) before he was lost for the year with an injury. I could be all wrong and sometimes all a guy needs in a opportunity but if I don't have him I'm not going to pay what it takes to get him and if I do, I'm seeing if somebody will overpay for him. Either way, I'm not betting my season on this dude.
2. It's an especially good year to own Peyton Manning.
To be clear, it's always a good year to own Peyton Manning. This year, however, has the potential to be special, a la Brady, Tom, circa 2007. Manning threw up a 40/57, 433 yard, 3 TD line against the Texans and with his defense looking putrid (Bob Sander is apparently out indefinitely - in other news the sun came up this morning and will set tonight) the Colts may be playing a bunch of shoot-outs this season. Add that to the fact that the Colts lack a consistent running game and Peyton stands to attempt a lot of passes and with a QB as good as Mr. Laser-Rocket Arm that's all you need to score more fantasy points. Finally, the Colts losing an early game to a division rival lessens the chances that they go 14-2 and Peyton screws you when you need him most, during the fantasy playoffs.
3. The rest of the Colts passing will be full of fun and excitement as well.
The natural off shoot of Manning having an excellent season is that his pass catchers will also benefit. In week 1 Reggie Wayne was his usually steady self (7 for 99, 1 TD) and Dallas Clark continued to be a PPR darling (11 for 80, 1 TD). Those guys are obvious fantasy must-starts, however, the real interesting thing about the Colts offense is the potential of the #2/3 WRs to have big games. Despite being a late round pick or perhaps going undrafted, Austin Collie - the Canadian from BYU - caught 11 for 163 while being targeted 12 times (second to Clark's 13). While his numbers were probably, at least in part a function of the Texans' attempts to take away Wayne (and to a lesser extent Clark) Week 1 could provide a nice blueprint for fantasy owners - you can always trust Wayne and Clark but if you lack great depth guys like Collie (think Stokely 2004 - 68, 1077, 10 TDs) and Garcon always have the potential to break out and win you a week here or there.
4. Forte will Fluctuate.
The Bears unveiled the new Mike Martz offense that fantasy football players have been waiting to see all off-season. We all know the drill, Martz will throw and throw and throw, his QB will get 4k yards and one of his receivers will be a stud (as long as we all pretend that San Francisco didn't happen). Week 1 was no exception, Cutler threw for big yards, Aromashodu and Knox were useful (Aroma led in targets 10 to 7 but Knox had a ton of preseason hype so its still too close to call). The big news was, of course, Matt Forte who hauled in 7 catches for 151 yards and 2 TDs for huge fantasy points despite pedestrian rushing output (14 for 50). With the exception of the great Marshall Faulk, Matz's scheme doesn't tend to produce great rushing numbers so we are left to wonder whether Forte can be a trusted every game starter in this system. For now, I say know. First off, we can all agree that there's no way he's going to replicate his performance on a weekly basis. Additionally, with running backs I tend to rely on the guys who put up rushing numbers and take the receiving yards as a bonus. Because backs usually serve as outlets on short passes their production is uneven in that category - a short swing pass can be either a 2 yard gain or, with a missed tackle, a 72 yard TD. That's not something I want to rely on. I think Forte's final stats are in line with his career average of 60 receptions and as the Bears play better teams and inevitably stink, they'll be forced to throw the ball even more, lessening Forte's running opportunities and making his week-to-week production volatile.
5. The Pats are Back.
I was lucky enough to have the Pats on as the second early game this week (with the G-Men) and saw an absolute dismantling of a supposedly good Bengals team. Forget the final score (38-24) it wasn't even that close. Pats offense looked to be back near 2007 levels (Brady is now in year 2 of ACL recovery, normally the time when players are 100%) and, more surprisingly, the defense looked fast, aggressive and tough. Brady, Moss and Welker are studs but the other guys like Edelman (when healthy), Tate (when Edelman is not healthy), Fred Taylor and his bionic groin and the Pats D become viable members of line-ups this season.
2. It's an especially good year to own Peyton Manning.
To be clear, it's always a good year to own Peyton Manning. This year, however, has the potential to be special, a la Brady, Tom, circa 2007. Manning threw up a 40/57, 433 yard, 3 TD line against the Texans and with his defense looking putrid (Bob Sander is apparently out indefinitely - in other news the sun came up this morning and will set tonight) the Colts may be playing a bunch of shoot-outs this season. Add that to the fact that the Colts lack a consistent running game and Peyton stands to attempt a lot of passes and with a QB as good as Mr. Laser-Rocket Arm that's all you need to score more fantasy points. Finally, the Colts losing an early game to a division rival lessens the chances that they go 14-2 and Peyton screws you when you need him most, during the fantasy playoffs.
3. The rest of the Colts passing will be full of fun and excitement as well.
The natural off shoot of Manning having an excellent season is that his pass catchers will also benefit. In week 1 Reggie Wayne was his usually steady self (7 for 99, 1 TD) and Dallas Clark continued to be a PPR darling (11 for 80, 1 TD). Those guys are obvious fantasy must-starts, however, the real interesting thing about the Colts offense is the potential of the #2/3 WRs to have big games. Despite being a late round pick or perhaps going undrafted, Austin Collie - the Canadian from BYU - caught 11 for 163 while being targeted 12 times (second to Clark's 13). While his numbers were probably, at least in part a function of the Texans' attempts to take away Wayne (and to a lesser extent Clark) Week 1 could provide a nice blueprint for fantasy owners - you can always trust Wayne and Clark but if you lack great depth guys like Collie (think Stokely 2004 - 68, 1077, 10 TDs) and Garcon always have the potential to break out and win you a week here or there.
4. Forte will Fluctuate.
The Bears unveiled the new Mike Martz offense that fantasy football players have been waiting to see all off-season. We all know the drill, Martz will throw and throw and throw, his QB will get 4k yards and one of his receivers will be a stud (as long as we all pretend that San Francisco didn't happen). Week 1 was no exception, Cutler threw for big yards, Aromashodu and Knox were useful (Aroma led in targets 10 to 7 but Knox had a ton of preseason hype so its still too close to call). The big news was, of course, Matt Forte who hauled in 7 catches for 151 yards and 2 TDs for huge fantasy points despite pedestrian rushing output (14 for 50). With the exception of the great Marshall Faulk, Matz's scheme doesn't tend to produce great rushing numbers so we are left to wonder whether Forte can be a trusted every game starter in this system. For now, I say know. First off, we can all agree that there's no way he's going to replicate his performance on a weekly basis. Additionally, with running backs I tend to rely on the guys who put up rushing numbers and take the receiving yards as a bonus. Because backs usually serve as outlets on short passes their production is uneven in that category - a short swing pass can be either a 2 yard gain or, with a missed tackle, a 72 yard TD. That's not something I want to rely on. I think Forte's final stats are in line with his career average of 60 receptions and as the Bears play better teams and inevitably stink, they'll be forced to throw the ball even more, lessening Forte's running opportunities and making his week-to-week production volatile.
5. The Pats are Back.
I was lucky enough to have the Pats on as the second early game this week (with the G-Men) and saw an absolute dismantling of a supposedly good Bengals team. Forget the final score (38-24) it wasn't even that close. Pats offense looked to be back near 2007 levels (Brady is now in year 2 of ACL recovery, normally the time when players are 100%) and, more surprisingly, the defense looked fast, aggressive and tough. Brady, Moss and Welker are studs but the other guys like Edelman (when healthy), Tate (when Edelman is not healthy), Fred Taylor and his bionic groin and the Pats D become viable members of line-ups this season.
6. Ahmad Bradshaw is the Giants go-to back.
If there were any doubts after the preseason and Brandon Jacobs' mini-tantrum, they were laid to rest on Sunday when Bradshaw got 20 carries to Jacobs' 12 despite getting off to a slow start (imagine what the distribution would have been had Bradshaw broke off a big early run), including one goal line touch, and continued to look sharper and faster. Bradshaw owners should be excited for their match-up with a Colts run defense that is eerily reminiscent of swiss cheese and Jacobs' backers should be looking to see if Fred Taylor is still available.
7. Fantasy Football is not fair.
Here is your otherwise noted, this one will never change, not week 2 and not ever. Fantasy football is fun, its interesting, its a cool way to hang out with your buddies but it is in no way fair. Somebody lost a game to a team they should have beat because Hakeem Nicks caught 3 TDs, Foster went nuts and Frank Gore got them 38 yards against the Seahawks (seriously Frank, against the friggin Seahawks? Really? Come On!!). It's always going to be that way and there's nothing you can do about it so enjoy the ride.
If there were any doubts after the preseason and Brandon Jacobs' mini-tantrum, they were laid to rest on Sunday when Bradshaw got 20 carries to Jacobs' 12 despite getting off to a slow start (imagine what the distribution would have been had Bradshaw broke off a big early run), including one goal line touch, and continued to look sharper and faster. Bradshaw owners should be excited for their match-up with a Colts run defense that is eerily reminiscent of swiss cheese and Jacobs' backers should be looking to see if Fred Taylor is still available.
7. Fantasy Football is not fair.
Here is your otherwise noted, this one will never change, not week 2 and not ever. Fantasy football is fun, its interesting, its a cool way to hang out with your buddies but it is in no way fair. Somebody lost a game to a team they should have beat because Hakeem Nicks caught 3 TDs, Foster went nuts and Frank Gore got them 38 yards against the Seahawks (seriously Frank, against the friggin Seahawks? Really? Come On!!). It's always going to be that way and there's nothing you can do about it so enjoy the ride.
*Unless otherwise noted, the things we know are subject to change as soon as Week 2.
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